Two more months and that's it, it's closed. A decade ends and we look forward to the next: what will the 20s bring us? From the premises they will be anything but boring.
The automation revolution, increasingly dangerous artificial intelligence, geohacking of the planet and radical advances in biotechnology. A lot of things await us: here's what the world will be like in the next 10 years in 11 predictions about the future.
Disclaimer: making predictions about the future is easy, the hard part is getting them right. The premise is clear and obvious. Also because they don't do tarot cards in here. Anyone would like to discover their future, but I am not an oracle and my site is not the book of oracles. It must be said, however, that when one observes the tangible emergence of certain trends, the hypotheses are always sensible. That's when we start talking not about 'predictions of the future' but about predictions OF the future :)
The new industrial revolution
The great growth of automation and the consequent onset of technological unemployment are causing more than one concern. Indeed, the next decade will involve significant cuts to the human workforce. It is the result of constant improvements in robotics and artificial intelligence.
Not everyone sees it black, however: a forecast of the future comes from a search for the World Economic Forum 2018 who proposed the loss of 75 million jobs worldwide by 2022 due to automation, offset by the creation of 133 million jobs linked to this transition. Overall, therefore, forecasts for the future show a net increase of 58 million jobs which should constitute a nice "rebound", a push for change in the entire industrial sector.
Editor's note: A post that challenges Covid
A note in retrospect: this post was released on January 7, 2020, on the eve of a total upheaval, that of the pandemic. The world in the future, life in the future and the things that will happen will absolutely be affected by this event as well. The world in 50 years will be different than it would have been without the spread of the coronavirus. I know, we know. But these future predictions have remained absolutely valid and intact, and even Covid has accelerated them.
I could not guarantee the quality and compensation of these new works, net of their number. They will not be free, however. The fate of many workers is unfortunately out of the game. In any case, this change will require a significant requalification and other important adjustments of the professional figures. A likely trend in the 20s, however, will be jobs involving cobots, robots that do not replace humans, but are created to collaborate with them by diversifying their functions. It could be the “golden mean” that also pushes SMEs towards low-cost automation: providing a class of cheaper robots that speed up work but do not compromise human resources.
The world of the future: a peaceful and lasting revolution
In his predictions about the future the writer PW Singer (one who really knew how to predict the future because he had love for the future) says a simple thing. He says that in future years we should focus less on the fear of a robot "uprising". Maybe, worry more about the beginning of a peaceful and profitable revolution.
“We are entering an industrial revolution similar to the rise of the steam engine and factories”Singer explained. “A wave of automation and artificial intelligence is affecting all sectors of society, applied everywhere from the farm and home to the battlefield. There will be incredible improvements in efficiency and routes that humans could never have made on their own. ”
Singer said people have already forgotten the traumas inflicted by the previous industrial revolution, but we are already seeing the breakdown of jobs and roles, the alteration of voting policies, the rise of new legal and ethical issues, and new political and ideologies.
“The last industrial revolution brought everything from our conception of modern capitalism, to the ideologies of socialism, communism and fascism, which we spent shaking up the next few centuries”, Singer said. It is clear that predictions about the future of the 20s will probably leave aside subtle but profound transformations in the emotional and social fabric of the world.
The decade of autonomous driving
Secondo Lyndsay Wasser, co-chair of McMillan's privacy and data protection group the impact of widespread autonomous vehicles it will be “huge”.
“A number of sectors will be affected and job losses are inevitable, including both directly impacted organisations, such as taxi and truck companies, and associated sectors such as car insurance, petrol stations and parking facilities", has explained Water.
The widespread introduction of autonomous vehicles will also impact how people and families approach transportation. What will the world be like in the future of automotive in the coming times?
“The cost of owning such a vehicle makes it unlikely that most low- and middle-income families will purchase such a car in the foreseeable future”Says Water. “Many consumers will likely forgo ownership in favor of vehicle-sharing ecosystems. While there are many anticipated benefits associated with AV, such as increased safety and mobility for people who are unable to drive, the technology is associated with significant risks. In particular, an autonomous vehicle could be used as a weapon if a malicious hacker or cyber-terrorist gained control of it. The volume of data generated by autonomous vehicles also raises real privacy concerns.”
Autonomous vehicles: vertical ascent
Sarah Kaufmann, associate director of New York University's Rudin Center for Transportation, says much of the 2020s will be characterized by the rise of autonomous vehicles.
“Everyone and everything will move into fleets. Fleets of taxis, UPS trucks, bicycles and drones. No vehicle ownership in town. People will travel as part of a larger online intelligence network. Terrannor track that person’s calendar, mood, physical makeup and travel needs – they will be matched to the right vehicle”.
Forecast for the future? Phones will introduce us to things like: “You ate too much pizza last night: ride your bike to work today” or even suggest vehicle types according to habits: “Since you're taking your son and his three friends to hockey practice, use this SUV”.
All vehicles on the road will detect and move in perfect concert to avoid collisions and conflicts. And guess what? They will move more slowly, but safely.
The machines will be able to drive without supervision, generate engaging news articles and fully automate many jobs, including basic secretarial work and investments. At the same time, and as a side effect of this progress, the cognitive gap between people and machines will also increase, which means that the degree of intelligence that separates AI from humans will become increasingly greater and certainly not to our advantage.
The 20s could also see a dramatic change in the way we inhabit movable and immovable property. The boundary between vehicle and home will be increasingly blurred, and even the intended use of a built-up area will be mobile and changeable. The very nature of work, increasingly dematerialized (also by virtue of VR solutions for business) will allow a new generation of "digital nomads" to live and work practically anywhere.
A fake world. On the contrary: deepfake
If the development of technologies deepfake will continue with the current speed, to say if a news is false or true will be a pure bet. This state of affairs will have an unprecedented impact on our democracy and social cohesion, as well as on law, privacy and security.
Forecasts for the future of Finn Brunton, associate professor of media, culture and communication at New York University, say there will be several manipulation strategies related to this technology.
“The ability to generate mostly synthetic or fully synthetic videos will become easier and faster, perfecting the method will allow you to produce personalized and targeted videos on different subjects.” A bit like Cambridge Analytica propaganda, but with personalized videos.
Some of these fakes will be rough, he said, but many people will still fall for these tricks.
Instead of trolling on Twitter to manipulate public opinion, actors intent on persuasion will “create, reinforce, and amplify small, isolated subcultures to push their ideas and beliefs further and further in the directions their creators want to see them go.”
Killer drones
The development and spread of autonomous drones could lead to the emergence and proliferation of terrorist or demonstration actions that make use of armed drones "do-it-yourself". It may sound ominous, but in the 20s we may see the first assassination of a high-ranking Western politician or important public figure at the hands of a remotely operated, or perhaps autonomous, drone. (EDIT January 5, 2020: the first example has already happened in the East with thekilling of General Soleimani). This also raises the questions that I would like politics to ask: knowing that just pressing a button to make anyone in the world die is not a good feeling.
The advent of artificial superintelligence
Artificial intelligence is destined to become increasingly unpredictable, and in some cases inexplicable and incomprehensible, both for the general public and for experts. The problem of the 20s may no longer be to create a AI super capable. It could be to interrogate an AI in the right way to understand its logic and behavior. In other words we will start the great chase, with a strong possibility of losing it. If it happens we will be out of AI's decision-making processes, “it” will give us enormous potential problems and perhaps even large-scale catastrophes.
Will AI take over humans or not?
Our ability to read and limit any artificial super intelligence once it emerges remains an open question. It may not happen, but we should prepare accordingly for any eventuality.
In 1999 the futurist Ray Kurzweil predicted that a superintelligent machine would not appear until about 2045-2050. He may still be right. To occur in the next decade, this eventuality would require a significant technological leap.
In any case, in the coming years, social awareness of the dangers represented by AI will increase, a bit like environmental awareness is emerging today. Douglas Vakoch, astrobiologist and president of METI (Messaging Extraterrestrial Intelligence), says that as computers gain power and become more human-like in function and form, “We will feel increasingly threatened. The fear will increase that our creatures may overtake us, and perhaps destroy us."
Hack the planet
If AI gets scarier during the 2020s, climate change is no joke. By 2020 we should, unfortunately, witness an increasing number of disruptions and catastrophes, multiple heat waves and drought to rising sea waters, storms, floods and fires. Discovering the future in these cases can be a very painful exercise in love: it makes you want to stop divination.
There is a strong possibility that the world's nations will continue to fall short of their climate goals. In place of internationally binding agreements and treaties, we are likely to undertake our first clumsy efforts to repair the environment by other means, such as geoengineering.
The proposed solutions include efforts to increase the reflectivity of the clouds, building giant space reflectors, fertilizing the oceans, introducing stratospheric aerosols, among other ideas. The problem with geoengineering, however, is that we could completely ruin the planet and further damage the climate. We should expect to see debates about the prospect of geoengineering.
The danger of 'climate delay'
There is, of course, the possibility that governments will actually work to reduce carbon emissions, but the effects will not be immediate due to a phenomenon known as “climate lag.”
In other words, a delay between reductions in carbon emissions and sudden changes in temperature. Today we could reduce all carbon emissions and we will most likely see continuous temperature increases for the next two decades.
An obvious environmental problem, but also a political one.
What can you say to citizens who have agreed to make big changes in their lives, even sacrifices, if they don't see apparently positive results? Saying “it could have been worse” or hoping for luck rarely works.
Better and more powerful biotechnology
Biotechnology will continue to advance through the 2020s to 2030s. It will likely take another generation or two before we see genetically “designed babies,” but major advances in this area should occur in the next 10 years.
As it stands, scientists in the United States and elsewhere can genetically modify human embryos for experimentation, but the cells must be destroyed within a few days. Don't expect this to change in the 20s, but the 30s could be a different story.
The medicine will be personalized
Predictions about the future of medicine in the 20s have one key word: personalization. So-called “precision medicine” is expected to finally make its appearance in the 20s. Healthcare providers will personalize their therapies based not only on genetics but also on the patient's context or lifestyle. Genetic analysis and AI will allow healthcare providers to develop personalized treatments instead of our current one-size-fits-all approach.
CRISPR will continue to cause a sensation, indeed more
jennifer doudna is co-inventor of CRISPR and biochemistry at UC Berkeley (and subsequently to this post won the Nobel for chemistry). He stated that, in the next 10 years, “We may see new drugs and individualized approaches based on CRISPR to treat and potentially cure most intractable genetic diseases, such as cystic fibrosis”. In agriculture, researchers will apply CRISPR to grow more nutritious and robust crops and establish “genetic safeguards” to control the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria and Zika virus.
The 20s may see the first attempts to genetically modify living organisms such as mosquitoes. But “to ensure the responsible development of these wide-ranging applications”, doudna claimed it will be “It is vital to continue public discourse on uses and regulation” of these powerful technologies.
New perspectives of our role in space
Finally, the next decade will see a dramatic increase in our understanding of the cosmos, and perhaps also of extraterrestrial life. Next generation telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope andEuropean Extremely Large Telescope, they are ready to redefine our knowledge of the galaxy.
Advances in computing power will provide a big boost to SETI. We will be able to scan the skies for signs of intelligent life at a faster pace than ever before. I want to be clear about this, and make a solemn prediction (free oracles, indeed!): by the end of the next decade, humanity will have counted one million nearby stars. This is a number large enough to give us some realistic chance of finding life in the cosmos. However, the chances of discovering that we are not alone in the universe will be higher than up to now.
