The rise of GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro is reportedly raising growing concerns among tobacco, sweets and alcohol companies. According to a recent survey conducted by Morgan Stanley, these medicines, increasingly popular for the treatment of obesity and diabetes, are leading to a significant reduction in the consumption of cigarettes, alcohol and junk food among users.
A trend which, if confirmed on a large scale, could have a disruptive impact on the profits of some of the largest giants in the food and addiction industries. And this is no small feat, given the figures involved.
Reduction in cigarette and alcohol consumption
The survey, which involved approximately 300 users of GLP-1 drugs, highlighted substantial changes in drinking habits after starting treatment. If before taking these drugs 40% of those interviewed smoked cigarettes at least once a week, this percentage dropped to 24% after starting therapy. Similarly, weekly use of e-cigarettes it went from 30% to 16%.
Similar findings emerged regarding alcohol consumption. Between 56% and 62% of alcohol consumers who take GLP-1 medications reported drinking less since starting treatment. Between 14% and 18% even stopped completely.
A survey, it must be said, has no scientific value. But if it aligns with evidence direct reports from patients e collateral studies begins to show a clear trend.
The impact of GLP-1 drugs on fast food and snack giants
The data collected by Morgan Stanley adds to growing speculation about the impact that growing demand for GLP-1 could have on the balance sheets of some of the largest fast food chains and packaged snack makers.
Analysts at the investment bank estimate that the US GLP-1 drug market could be worth $105 billion by 2030. It is estimated that 31,5 million Americans (about 9% of the population) will take these drugs by 2035.
A questionable “concern”.
It is interesting to note how some American media, in reporting these data, speak of "growing concerns" regarding the potential decline in sales of products such as highly processed foods.
A perspective that seems to prioritize corporate interests over the potential public health benefits of reducing the consumption of ultra-processed foods and harmful substances such as tobacco and alcohol. I'm not discussing the value of the economy, but on an ethical level there shouldn't be any questions at all.
Potential applications and benefits of GLP-1 drugs
In addition to obesity and diabetes, GLP-1 drugs are also showing promising results in treating addictions, Alzheimer's disease, depression and anxiety. If these applications were to be confirmed, the percentage of the population taking these medicines could far exceed the 9% estimated by Morgan Stanley.
Although the prospect of replacing the dependence on ultra-processed foods with that on drugs (which at the moment, I remember, they must be hired for life) is a mixed blessing, the potential benefits in terms of health, longevity and mortality for those eligible for treatment could more than justify the trade-off. Let's be clear, caution is needed for this too. And above all for another theme.
The need to ensure accessibility
As new competitors enter the market and prices drop, the public health benefits of GLP-1 drugs could easily outweigh the costs, which today are unjustifiably prohibitive. However, to ensure equitable access to these drugs, the intervention of regulators through price controls and policies that avoid disparities related to social class and race will be essential.
In summary, the junk food and old addiction industry is concerned about the rise of GLP-1 drugs, the scientific community is committed to exploring their potential also against old addictions, and in my small way I would like it not to become a new type of addiction.
Am I asking too much?
