Tesla sales plummeted in Europe in the first months of 2025, but Elon Musk He doesn't seem worried. The reason? Tesla's future no longer depends on electric cars.
The new Master Plan Part IV The American company's strategy is revealed: transforming Tesla from a vehicle manufacturer to a leader in intelligent robotics. Optimus robots will represent the vast majority of the company's value, while cars will become a secondary business. This shift in perspective opens a truly interesting window into the near future of technology and mobility: I took a closer look to share my findings with you.
Master Plan Part IV: Tesla's Future Holds the End of the Automotive Era
The document published by Tesla September 2025 marks a turning point. Yet, as often happens in these cases, the matter went somewhat unnoticed. Perhaps because the tycoon he spread it on his social network X? I read it anyway, and I can say that this Master Plan Part IV doesn't even mention the development of new electric cars.
No budget Model 2, no range expansion. Even as reported by Quattroruote, the plan focuses exclusively on artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics.
The difference with previous Master Plans is stark. The initial documents, from 2006 and 2016, were precise roadmaps with measurable goals: developing electric sports cars, then affordable models, and finally renewable energy. The fourth chapter, however, becomes decidedly more ideological, filled as it is with proclamations of "sustainable abundance" and "global prosperity."
Musk has explicitly stated that 80% of Tesla's future value will come from Optimus robots, not from electric cars. A forecast that drastically reduces the automotive industry's role in the company that electrified the sector.
The collapse in car sales: a sign or a consequence?
According to ACEA data, Tesla recorded a 49% drop in sales in Europe in the first two months of 2025, reaching just 19.046 units. Although this decline is now around 33%, market share has still fallen to 0,8%, its lowest level in the last five years.
The phenomenon, mind you, is not limited to Europe. In the United States, in California (the largest American electricity market), Tesla saw registrations decline 11,6% in 2024, shedding nearly 27.000 vehicles while the overall electric market grew 1,2%. A paradox that tells a precise story: Tesla is deliberately moving away from the automotive business.
The reasons are multiple. Musk's political exposure, his support for Donald Trump and interference in European politics has alienated many customers. But it must also be said that Tesla has not launched a completely new car in five years, if you exclude the creepy Cybertruck.
Optimus Robot: A New Obsession in Tesla's Future
As car sales plummet, Tesla invests heavily in humanoid robotics. The Optimus robots, unveiled in 2021, represent Musk's vision of the future. As we reported some time ago, the company promises mass production as early as November 2025, with the goal of one million units per year within five years.
The technology behind Optimus uses the same approach as FSD (Full Self Driving): neural networks trained on huge amounts of video data. The robot "learns" by watching footage of humans performing specific tasks, just as Tesla cars learn to drive by observing millions of miles driven.
The applications are ambitious: from household management to dangerous industrial jobs. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, defined this "physical AI" as the latest evolution of artificial intelligence, in which systems do not simply process information but physically interact with the world. We, following another common belief, are more inclined to speak of embodiment. In the end it's the same thing.
A search for Morgan Stanley predicts that the humanoid robot market will reach $ 5.000 billion by 2050, with potentially 1 billion robots on the road. Tesla wants to conquer this frontier before its competitors, as it did with cars back then.
Competition puts pressure on: the BYD case
As Tesla chases robots, competitors are conquering the electric car market. China's BYD sold 1.764.992 electric vehicles in 2024, coming dangerously close to Tesla's 1.789.226. The gap is just 24.000 and closing rapidly.
The pace of growth is a rather telling indicator: Tesla saw a 1,07% decline in 2024, while BYD grew by 12,08%. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the Chinese already surpassed Tesla with 595.413 units versus 495.570. The final overtaking seems to be a matter of months, not years.
In EuropeChinese brands have already surpassed Tesla in electric car sales: 19.800 units versus 15.700 in February 2025. Companies like BYD offer electric vehicles around $35.000, prices that Tesla struggles to match without sacrificing margins.
Robotaxi and Robovan: A Bridge Between Cars and Robots
The only remaining link between traditional automotive and Tesla's robotic vision is the project RobotaxiThe autonomous transport service, already active in Austin and San Francisco, represents the natural evolution of the car towards the mobile robot.
According to Musk's calculations, a traditional car is used only 10 hours a week, while a robotaxi could work 80-100 hours, multiplying the efficiency by 8-10 times. You can think what you want about Musk, but not that his vision (which is by no means isolated) is wrong: the vehicle ceasing to be a consumer good to become a widespread service would be a blessing.
However, Tesla is lagging behind its competitors including Waymo (Google), which already operates in five US cities. Tesla's Cybercab, unveiled in October 2024, won't go into production until 2026, leaving plenty of room for rivals.
Artificial intelligence as an accelerator
The heart of Tesla's transformation and future lies, as mentioned, in the evolution of artificial intelligence. MIT Technology Review also highlights this: Robots trained with generative AI are overcoming traditional limitations of robotics.
New systems can combine data from sensors, cameras, and haptic feedback to manipulate objects never seen before. A Tesla robot, or figure, Unitree, can learn to wash dishes by observing human videos, teleoperation data, and virtual simulations, creating a versatile model without specific programming.
AI's multimodality allows robots to interpret not only verbal commands, but also facial expressions, tone of voice and body languageInteraction becomes natural, opening up domestic usage scenarios unthinkable with traditional robotics.
The risks of the robot-first strategy
Tesla's bet on robots, it must be said, carries enormous risks. First of all, humanoid robotics It is still largely experimental. Publicly demonstrated Optimus robots often rely on human teleoperation or pre-programmed sequences, as admitted by the workers themselves.
Secondly, abandoning the automotive business while the electric market is booming may prove premature. In Europe, electric car sales grew 28,4% in the first months of 2025, demonstrating that demand still exists.
Finally, competition in humanoid robotics is intensifying. The aforementioned AI figures has raised over $700 million, while startups like K-Scale Labs They develop robots for $9.000, less than half the expected price of Optimus.
The biggest risk is that Tesla loses its leadership in electric vehicles without being able to reclaim it in robotics, leaving it without a dominant position in either market. Think about that if and when you buy shares.
Tesla's future between utopia and reality
The Master Plan Part IV envisions a future of "sustainable abundance" where intelligent robots free humanity from drudgery. A fascinating vision reminiscent of the technological utopias of the past, it could also become the next great industrial revolution.
Musk promises that Optimus "will be able to play the piano and thread a needle," capabilities that would require enormous advances in AI and fine robotics. The timelines are ambitious: thousands of robots in 2025, mass production in 2026, one million units by 2030. We're always talking about the richest man on the planet, we're always talking about the man who claimed to take us to Mars in 2028.
The point is that Tesla's future from car company to robotics leader isn't just a technological issue, but a cultural one. The company that convinced the world that electric cars were the future must now convince it that domestic robots are inevitable.
In a move reminiscent of Apple's move from computers to phones, Tesla is betting everything on a technology that's just emerging—or, I'd say nascent. The difference is that this time, the stakes aren't just the success of a company, but the very definition of how we will work, live, and move in the coming decades.
Tesla's future no longer has a steering wheel or wheels. It has legs, arms, and, according to Musk, the intelligence to change the world. It remains to be seen whether the world is ready for this change.
