While you are reading these lines, somewhere Elon Musk is probably reiterating yet another announcement about SpaceX and the conquest of Mars. The script is now tried and tested: bold promises, ambitious timelines, contagious enthusiasm. The latest version of the dream predicts humans on the red planet by 2028.
Small detail: Starship, the vehicle that is supposed to take us there, has just completed its third consecutive explosion of the year. Not that I want to spoil the party, but maybe it's time to take a hard look at the numbers. Experts are losing patience, and the criticism is getting more and more concrete.
The problem of broken promises
SpaceX’s history on Mars is littered with missed dates. In 2017, Musk promised human missions for 2024. Then it became il 2026. Time the 2028. As Digital Trends pointed out, these are not small delays: we are talking about promises that are systematically postponed for years, decades.
Starship was supposed to land on the Moon in 2022. It didn't happen. The NASA hoped to return astronauts to the Moon by 2024. This too is blurred. Yet we continue to hope (unreasonably) that SpaceX on Mars in 2028 is plausible.
SpaceX on Mars, the tests that are not convincing
Starship's recent failures tell a different story than the glossy presentations. Test May 27, 2025 It ended with the rocket spinning before disintegrating. The Super Heavy booster plunged into the sea instead of making a clean landing.
SpaceX has made remarkable progress with the Falcon 9, that’s undeniable. But jumping from Earth orbital launches to interplanetary human missions is a quantum leap. As highlighted in our previous article, orbital refueling is still to be tested, and without that we are going nowhere.
The Hidden Challenges of Colonization
Sending a rocket to Mars is “just” transportation. The real challenges come later. Scientific research show that astronauts would suffer at least 0.66 sieverts of radiation during a round trip. For comparison, that’s like having 300 chest x-rays.
There is no magnetosphere on Mars that protects from cosmic radiation. The atmosphere is 100 times thinner than ours. Temperatures range from -140°C to 30°C. Landing heavy loads is incredibly complex: the atmosphere is too thin to slow you down effectively, but thick enough to create aerodynamic problems.
SpaceX on Mars, between dreams and reality
Do not misunderstand me: I would really like to be wrong. Seeing SpaceX on Mars in 2028 (like everyone else) would be the greatest moment in human history. Musk, whatever anyone may say, has also shown that he can turn impossible dreams into concrete reality. If Tesla changed the automotive industry, SpaceX has revolutionized space launches.
But turning enthusiasm into credible timetables requires intellectual honesty. Experts estimate that a human mission to Mars will realistically require at least another 30 years of technological development.
The Ending No One Wants to Hear
Musk will continue to announce increasingly closer dates, the media will continue to relaunch them, and we will continue to dream. But when 2028 arrives and there will still be only robots on Mars (IF there will be, because even that is not a given), remember this article.
And maybe next time you hear Martian promises, ask for a few more details about life support systems. Dreams are beautiful, but physics does not negotiate.
