You know well how fragile international trade relations can be: a political decision is enough to ruin years of industrial planning. And he knows it well too. Elon Musk, which suddenly found its production of its Optimus humanoid robots crippled by Chinese restrictions on the export of rare earth magnets. A side effect of the US tariffs that no one had foreseen, or maybe yes.
During a conference call on company earnings, the CEO of Tesla revealed that Beijing wants “guarantees that these components will not be used for military purposes.” As if a robot designed to replace humans in repetitive tasks could be transformed into a war machine. Well, well.
The geopolitical comedy continues, and we “mere mortals” watch helplessly as the great powers play a commercial arm wrestling game. The US tariffs have triggered a chain reaction that now also threatens one of the most ambitious projects of Musk, a fervent (and interested) supporter of the last American administration.
When US Tariffs Provoke Retaliation
China has wasted no time in responding to the US tariff maneuvers. This month it imposed export restrictions on rare earths as part of a broad response to US tariffs, limiting supplies of the minerals used to make weapons, electronics and a range of consumer goods. And the measure goes beyond raw materials: It also includes magnets and other finished products that will be difficult to replace (much like lithium processing, which we were talking about in unsuspecting times).
I am especially struck by the fact that exporting companies must now apply for licenses from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, through a process that can take anywhere from six or seven weeks to several months. A bureaucratic slowdown that could have devastating consequences for Musk's plans, who expected (according to his statements) to produce thousands of Optimus robots as early as this year.
The timing couldn’t be worse for the fiery entrepreneur: it’s no coincidence (and not only for this reason) that he recently announced that he will reduce his political activity starting in May. A decision that comes after months of controversy sparked by his increasingly controversial “activism.” Evidently, even for Musk, the time has come to take a step back and focus on the concrete problems that afflict his companies.
Humanoid robots in the crossfire
China wants some assurances that these are not used for military purposes, which obviously they're not. They're just going into a humanoid robot
These words from Musk's call (I keep them in the original language for those who can grasp the nuances) perfectly highlight the absurdity of the situation. Those to the robot Optimus, presented as a revolution in the field of home and industrial automation, are only the latest "collateral damage" of the new (hopefully) cold war.
It is interesting to note how this situation reflects a broader tension in a sector, the automotive sector, which is only apparently different from the robotics sector (if you have heard of it of something called Dojo). During the same period, the CEO of Mercedes urged the EU to find a fair solution to the dispute over tariffs on electric vehicles produced in China. On the other side, the Chinese giant also BYD is reviewing its European operations after some strategic stumbles.
The Economic Impact of US Tariffs
Bottom line: US tariffs are not only impacting robots Tesla, but they are sending shockwaves throughout the global economy. The truck maker Volvo has reduced its forecast for the North American market precisely because of the uncertainty linked to tariffs.
It seems obvious to me (and not from today) that we are at the dawn of a new era of global protectionism, in which superpowers will increasingly use trade barriers as weapons in their strategic rivalry. And as always, it will be innovative companies and consumers who will pay the highest price.
Musk’s promise of thousands of Optimus robots this year now seems much harder to keep. I’ll venture a guess: impossible. We are faced with yet another example of how politics can hinder technological progress, rather than foster it. And as governments continue their tug-of-war over US tariffs, the robotics revolution may be delayed not by technological limitations, but by red tape and bureaucracy.
A sadly predictable epilogue to a futuristic dream.
