In recent decades, China has experienced first-hand the consequences of restrictive reproductive policies, such as the infamous "one-child policy". But what is happening in the Land of the Dragon is just a taste of what awaits the rest of the world. According to a new study (that I link to you here), by 2095 families all over the planet will suffer a drastic downsizing, with a reduction in relatives up to 71% in some cases.
An epochal change that will put traditional support systems to the test, calling societies to rethink the very concept of family. Are you ready to deal with a future in which blood ties will be rarer and more precious than ever?
A global demographic transition
The study, conducted by researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, analyzed demographic data from several countries to estimate how family structures will change in the coming decades. The result? An unprecedented picture: due to the global decline of birth rates and mortality, families around the world are thinning at a staggering rate.
Let's take the case of a 65 year old woman: if in 1950 he could count on an average network of 41 relatives, by 2095 that number will drop to just 25, a decrease of almost two fifths. But in some countries, such as Zimbabwe, the decline will be even more dramatic, with a 71% reduction in family size.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
The Chinese experience as a preview of the future of families
With its draconian birth control policies, as mentioned, China represents an emblematic case study. In 1950, a Chinese newborn he had an average of 11 cousins; by 2095, a century and a half later, that number will drop to just one. And that's not all: with increasing longevity, it's likely that all four grandparents of that future baby will still be alive at the time of his or her birth, further unbalancing the family age pyramid.
This transformation of family structures is not just a demographic curiosity, but has profound implications for the future of our societies. As he points out Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, lead author of the study, these changes will put unprecedented pressure on those who will have to care for children and the elderly.
“Emptied” families: a challenge for traditional support systems
For centuries, societies around the world have been based on the assumption that family networks would always provide reliable support for caring for the most vulnerable. The emptying of these networks, however, could leave a void that public welfare systems would struggle to fill.
Imagine being a single parent raising a child without the support of an extended network of aunts, uncles, cousins, and grandparents. Or of being an elderly person who needs daily assistance, but can only count on a couple of close relatives, perhaps already burdened with other responsibilities, or elderly themselves. These are scenarios that can even be glimpsed today, and which will become increasingly common in the near future, putting the structure of our communities to the test.
Towards a new concept of family
Faced with these challenges, it is clear that the traditional form of families, based on blood ties and geographical proximity, is destined to evolve. It will be necessary to rethink support systems, shifting the emphasis from the biological family to broader and more flexible solidarity networks.
What could this entail? First of all, greater investment in public childcare and elderly care services. Or the creation of new forms of community based on shared interests and values, rather than just genetic bonding. The families of the future, in short, will probably be smaller but can be integrated by a network of significant relationships outside the close circle of relatives.
Be careful: it is not a problem far away in time or space, but a reality that concerns us all closely. Whether we live in China, Zimbabwe or any other country in the world, we will deal with the consequences of this epochal change. Human history has always been a story of adaptation and innovation: it is up to us to ensure that the bonds that unite us become stronger and more meaningful than ever.
Because in a future where relatives will be rarer, it will be the relationships we build that will make the difference between loneliness and belonging, between fragility and resilience.
