As the world races through the frenzy of growth and expansion, Japan offers us a thoughtful pause. Imagine a country where the bright lights of Tokyo mix with quiet villages and less crowded streets. A nation that, despite its advanced technology and vibrant culture, is facing a demographic crisis that could rewrite its future.
Demographic crisis: an unstoppable trend?
According to data released by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs, the country's total population is now 125,4 million. This number includes both Japanese and foreign residents. And while the number of foreign residents increased of nearly 289.500 compared to the previous year, the number of Japanese residents saw a dramatic decrease of 800.523 residents.
For the first time in Japan's modern history, all prefectures of the country have experienced a decline in the number of Japanese citizens. This is neither an isolated phenomenon nor a phenomenon limited to a specific region.
In summary: Japan had a dismal record last year: 1,56 million deaths. This number is staggering, especially when compared with the number of registered births, which was only 771.801 newborns.
This imbalance between births and deaths is nothing new. It's a demographic crisis that's been going on for 14 years straight, a national trend that has profound implications for the country's future.
Tokyo: the only exception to the rule
Japan is the world's third-largest economy, but with a growing elderly population and a shrinking workforce, the country faces unprecedented economic challenges. How can Japan shore up pensions and healthcare with a shrinking workforce? Certainly not by making elderly people wear exoskeletons to prolong their careers (even if this happens too).
Perhaps indications about the future come from the capital. Despite the general trend, in fact, Tokyo has seen a slight increase in the total population. This is largely due to the increase in the number of foreign residents. What does this mean for the metropolis and for the country as a whole?
Demographic crisis: a look at the past and another at the future
The economic boom of the 80s seems distant. With a fertility rate of 1,3 (well below the 2,1 rate needed to maintain a stable population), Japan can only counter the demographic crisis by changing its immigration policy.
In 2018, Japanese lawmakers approved a policy change that created new visa categories to allow an estimated 340.000 foreign workers to access high-skill, low-wage jobs. And in 2021, the Japanese government announced that it was considering allowing foreigners with certain skills to remain in the country indefinitely. They thought that would be enough, but instead…
The pandemic: an unexpected obstacle
Like many other nations, Japan has also been faced with the challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. With the borders closed to foreign citizens and lockdowns in many prefectures, the progress made in terms of immigration has been halted and the demographic crisis has begun a phase of dangerous acceleration.
Now Japan needs it quadruple the number of foreign workers by 2040. But to do so, the country must create an environment that supports the human rights of migrant workers and promote social change to be more welcoming to foreigners.
The trend is this. Now you know: if you dream of living in those parts, you will not be considered "Gaijin” like once upon a time.
Banzai!
