If I told you that the key to understanding the global demographic future lies in France's past, you would think I was exaggerating. Yet, that's exactly how it is. While the entire world has only seen a decline in births in the last two centuries, France anticipated this trend by a full 100 years.
The explanation, notes a researcher in a recent study (that I link to you here), does not lie in steam engines or factories, but in a cultural and spiritual change. But first things first.
The French Puzzle
Imagine a world in which France has 250 million inhabitants. Sounds like science fiction, right? Yet, if France had followed the demographic trends of the United Kingdom, this would be our present. But France took a different path, a path that it began traveling a century before any other country.
And the reason behind it all? Not the Industrial Revolution, not an economic boom, but a much more subtle and penetrating phenomenon: secularization.
Beyond the industrial revolution
When we think about the great changes that have shaped human society, our minds immediately go to the Industrial Revolution. William White, a researcher at the University of Manchester, thinks differently.
France was a relatively poor and largely illiterate country when it began its demographic transition. Countries like the aforementioned UK even saw a temporary increase in fertility soon after the Industrial Revolution. So, what triggered the decline in births in France?
Dio e Morto
Blanc believes the answer is related to religion. Using crowdsourced genealogies, he documented fertility decline for the first time and identified its origins. With the secularization in the XNUMXth century, the Catholic Church lost influence and could no longer oppose birth control.
This process of “de-Christianization” was triggered by a growing antagonism towards religious authorities, often associated with an absolutist monarchical regime.
Secularization has had a greater impact in more densely populated areas, and wherever it has had a greater impact, fertility rates have declined more rapidly. This not only changed the course of French history, but also had repercussions throughout the European continent and, given the colonial importance of both the United Kingdom and France, probably the entire world.
An alternative future
If France had followed the demographic trends of the United Kingdom, as mentioned, it would have 180 million more inhabitants today. But it's not just a question of numbers. The reduction in births has allowed an increase in living standards, a phenomenon that has shaped the history of humanity much more than we think.
The lesson we can learn is that it is not just technology that shapes the future. Cultural and social factors, such as secularization, can have an equally profound impact. Especially in these times, with the challenges of the XNUMXst century entering the heart of history, it is essential not to underestimate the power of cultural and social changes in shaping our common destiny.
