When we talk about family, we all think we know what it means. But what if I told you that two people born in the same decade can have completely different family networks? A study by researchers at the Max Planck Institute has just revealed a phenomenon that is redefining kinship globally.
It’s not just declining birth rates or rising longevity: it’s the speed with which these changes are occurring that is creating unexpected fractures in family structures. What is it about? Let's see together.
The Domino Effect of Demographic Velocity
The mechanism is more subtle than it seems. Sha Jiang, a researcher in the Kinship Inequalities group at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, led a study examining how the speed of demographic change affects the number and age composition of a person's relatives. The research, published in the journal Demography, shows that when demographic transitions accelerate, huge differences are created between people of similar ages.
The researchers examined empirical data from four countries at different stages of demographic transition: Thailand, Indonesia, Ghana e Nigeria. The picture that emerges is striking: in countries where change occurs rapidly, differences in family networks between peers become enormous. In Nigeria, where change is slower, the difference in the number of cousins between a 10-year-old and a 30-year-old is less than XNUMX%. In Thailand, this difference is nearly XNUMX%.
The most interesting aspect is that these changes concern not only the total number of relatives, but also their age distribution. Rapid transitions lead to dramatic changes in both the average age and the age composition of relatives.
The paradox of overlapping generations
Cousins disappear, great-grandparents increase. This is the paradox of modern family networks that are transforming from horizontal to vertical. A Chinese child born in 1950 he grew up surrounded by 11 cousins, who represented almost 40% of his family network. In 2095, however, a newborn in Beijing will have on average only one cousin, which will represent just the 7% of the total of his family ties.
On the contrary, as I mentioned, great-grandparents are multiplying. For a Chinese newborn in 1950, there were an average of 2,8 living grandparents and 1,7 great-grandparents. By 2095, each baby will have 5,3 great-grandparents: 300% more. This phenomenon creates increasingly “long” but “tight” families, with more generations present at the same time but fewer relatives within each generation.
Italy is no exception. If in 1950 a 35-year-old woman had a grandmother of about 78, towards the end of the century the grandmother of a 90-year-old woman will be over XNUMX. And maybe she will also find herself with great-grandparents who are over a hundred years old.
The Geography of Changing Family Networks
The geographic implications of this phenomenon are impressive. In Europe and the United States, the number of relatives of a 65-year-old person will fall from 25 in 1950 to 15,9 in 2095, a reduction of 37%. But it is in Latin America and the Caribbean that the reduction will reach dramatic levels: from 56 relatives to 18,3, a drop of 67%.
African countries will undergo even more radical transformations. In Zimbabwe, the family network that in 1950 counted 82 people will be reduced to 24 by the end of the century: a decline of 71%. These numbers are not just statistics, but a real transformation of the social fabric.
When Family Networks Become Liquid
Traditional family support is crumbling faster than expected. “Informal networks between cohorts are breaking down faster,” Jiang says.
“The speed of demographic change is creating significant inequalities in family support resources between adjacent cohorts.”
This phenomenon has direct consequences on elderly care and intergenerational support. When there are fewer relatives available, the burden of care is concentrated on an ever-decreasing number of people. Families, which traditionally served as a private safety net, suddenly find themselves unable to meet the needs of their most vulnerable members.
The research highlights the need for timely institutional interventions to fill the gaps left by changing family networks. “Societies undergoing rapid change must accelerate the development of alternative support mechanisms,” Jiang concludes,
“to prevent disadvantaged groups from falling through the cracks of traditional family networks.”
The future of family networks, in short, will be very different from what we imagined. In a world where cousins become a luxury and great-grandparents the norm, we will have to completely rethink our concept of family.
