The world is facing a challenge that could radically change the way we live: population decline. For millennia, population growth has marked the rise of civilizations, fueling economies, cultures, and innovations. However, recent studies show a reversal of the trend. Within the 2100, nearly all countries will have fertility rates below replacement level. This sea change could lead to emptier cities, declining labor markets, and under-exploited natural resources. Is it time to rethink how we prepare for a world with fewer people?
The Roots of Population Decline
Global population growth has gone through centuries of expansion, from a few hundred million in the Middle Ages to over 8 billion in 2022. However, projections published in The Lancet (I'll link them here) report that as early as 2050, that is within the next 25 years, many countries will have birth rates insufficient to maintain a stable population. This demographic crisis, fueled by cultural, economic and health changes, is proving more complex than expected.
According to the professor Stein Emil Vollset ofInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, global demographic dynamics are rapidly evolving, bringing with them profound implications for the future of humanity.
Economic and social impacts
With fewer young people to support their economies, many countries could face serious challenges. A declining population means a smaller workforce, fewer consumers, and increasing pressure on social security systems. The burden of caring for the elderly, in particular, risks straining both families and healthcare institutions.
Countries with an increasingly aging population face rising costs for health and welfare. In addition, the decline in taxpayers could destabilize government budgets, threatening the sustainability of essential services such as pensions and health care.
Opportunities and risks for the environment
A less crowded planet could ease pressure on natural resources, resulting in reduced consumption of energy, water and food. However, environmental impact depends more on behaviors than numbers. A responsible consumption model will be essential to ensure real benefits for biodiversity and the climate.
The unequal distribution of population, with some cities emptying while others remain overpopulated, could further complicate resource management.
Population Decline: Reflections on the Future
Population decline is not just a demographic challenge, but an opportunity to rethink how we live and collaborate as a global society. This phenomenon invites us to redefine success not in terms of numbers, but of well-being, equity and sustainability. Planners and policy makers must prepare today for a different tomorrow, valuing changes as opportunities and not as obstacles.
The future will depend on how we adapt: will we be able to build a more just and supportive society in a less crowded world?
