Three years. Maybe less. This is what we have left before the climate budget to keep warming below 1,5°C is completely exhausted. This is the conclusion reached by a study from the University of Leeds published in the magazine Earth System Science Data. The numbers are merciless: 130 billion tons of CO2. This is our climate bank account. At the current rate of emissions, we will empty it by 2028. Yet, as I write these lines, the world continues to burn fossil fuels as if nothing were happening.
The Numbers No One Wants to See
Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Center for Climate Futures and lead author of the study, doesn't mince words. The 2024 data shows that Global temperature has reached 1,52°C above pre-industrial levels, of which 1,36°C is directly attributable to human activities. The climate budget is running out faster than expected.
The team of more than 60 international scientists has updated ten key indicators of the climate system, adding sea level rise and global precipitation for the first time. The results paint an alarming picture: greenhouse gas emissions remain at historical highs with 53,6 billion tons of CO2 equivalent per year.
When Mathematics Becomes Prophecy
Research confirms that 2024 was “alarmingly but not exceptionally” unusually warm given the amount of human-caused warming. This is not a paradox, but the logical consequence of a climate system pushed beyond its natural limits.
Between 2015 and 2024, The global average temperature was 1,24°C higher compared to pre-industrial levels, and virtually all of this warming is attributable to human activities. The rate of warming seen between 2012 and 2024 is nearly double that of the 70s and 80s.
Climate budget: as Europe says, “The final countdown”
The Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to 1,5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But our remaining climate budget is dwindling like sand between our fingers. With current emissions, we only have a 50% chance of staying below this threshold.
Karina Von Schuckman Mercator Ocean International explains that the ocean is absorbing 91% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to ocean warming, sea level rise and increased extreme weather events.
The paradox of record emissions
2024 has seen fossil emissions reach 37,4 billion tons, up 0,8% from 2023. International aviation emissions returned to pre-pandemic levels, while emissions from land use change increased due to deforestation and fires exacerbated by El Niño.
Joeri Rogelj of the Grantham Institute warns that the window to stay within 1,5°C is closing rapidly. Every small increase in warming leads to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.
Climate budget and geography of risk
Italy, like the entire Mediterranean, is on the front line. CMCC Foundation projections indicate temperature increases of up to 2°C in the period 2021-2050, while in the worst-case scenario they could reach 5-6°C in the Alpine areas by the end of the century.
Aimee Slangen of the NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute emphasizes that Sea level rose by 26 mm between 2019 and 2024, more than double the average rate of the 20th century. Sea-level rise responds slowly to climate change, which means we have already “locked in” further increases in the coming decades.
The failure of climate policies
The study highlights an uncomfortable reality: Climate policies and the pace of climate action are not keeping pace with what is needed to address the growing impacts. While The European Union has exceeded its 20% reduction target by 2020, reaching a 31% reduction, global emissions continue to grow.
As I pointed out in a previous article, the question is no longer whether climate forecasts are correct, but what we can do to make them less catastrophic.
The climate budget that changes the rules
The concept of a climate budget is simple: it represents the maximum amount of CO2 we can emit while maintaining a certain probability of limiting warming. It's non-negotiable with the atmosphere. Data for 2025-2030 will determine how quickly we reach +1,5°C. ISPRA records and In Italy, emissions have decreased by 20% since 1990, but this is not enough to balance the global increase.
The time for half measures is over. The climate budget is a stopwatch that does not stop, and the countdown does not wait for our political decisions. Three years is NOTHING to change the world: in terms of transforming the global energy system, it is the blink of an eye. Our climate budget reminds us that the planet keeps an inflexible accounting, and we are about to end up in the red while we are busy shooting each other. Forgive my unscientific frankness, I realize: I do not see it well.
