In the field of artificial intelligence, one of the most intriguing questions that fascinates experts is “when will we have Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?” Daniel Miessler, author and analyst, offers a bold and provocative take on this topic, arguing that the future of AGI is much closer than most people believe.
The evolution of AI towards AGI
In recent years, we have seen significant developments in the field of artificial intelligence. From advances in machine learning models such as GenAI and ChatGPT, it is clear that we are advancing towards more versatile and complex intelligence. However, general artificial intelligence goes beyond traditional AI.
While current AI excels at narrow, well-defined tasks, AGI promises to be a system capable of handling a variety of tasks and adapting to new and complex situations, much like humans.
The turning point is imminent
Miessler's prediction is clear: there is a 60% chance that Artificial General Intelligence will emerge by 2025 and a 90% chance by 2028. This does not mean expecting a single AI model that is capable of carrying out human tasks, but rather a system of different AIs working together to achieve complex goals. This systemic approach is critical to understanding the potential and future direction of AGI.
Shall we take a step back to define Artificial General Intelligence?
An effective definition of AGI was proposed by the CEO of OpenAI Sam altman, which describes her tout-court as the equivalent of an average employable human being. Miessler further refines this definition by focusing on the capabilities of an average knowledge worker. With this definition, General Artificial Intelligence is not just a theoretical concept but becomes a tangible and measurable objective.
I particularly agree with Miessler: the road to AGI is not limited to the development of a single AI model. A bit like in nature and society, power resides in systems. Ants, families and companies are examples of how the strength of a system exceeds that of the individual components. This principle will also apply to strong artificial intelligence: an AI system working together can replace not just individual workers but entire departments.
The Impact of the AGI System
An AGI system, composed of various layers of specialized agents, could handle complex tasks such as customer service, accounting or defense against cyber threats. Each level of the system will contribute to the achievement of shared objectives, exceeding the capabilities of a single worker.
The arrival of Artificial General Intelligence represents a turning point not only for the field of AI, but for the entire society. With capabilities that approach or exceed those of human workers, AGI raises crucial questions about the evolution of work, economics, and human interaction with technology. The 2025-2028 range is close: let's stay clear and prepared for what we see happen.
