In the near future the energy transition will be a catastrophe: it will bleed ordinary citizens and cause companies to close everywhere. Millions of human beings sacrificed on the altar of "green". The environmental situation will not change, it will only be a way for the elites to exercise control over the masses. At least this is according to eco-skeptics. What if instead the transition to green energy really contributed to saving the planet, and also became the engine of new economic prosperity?
Accounts and data in hand
Does this sound like a pipe dream? Not according to the economists of Cambridge Econometrics, who in an innovative study (that I link to you here) compared two scenarios: continuing as usual with fossil fuels or accelerating towards renewables and energy efficiency. The results are surprising and encouraging: taking the path of environmental sustainability decisively can lead to a catastrophe, yes, but in reverse.
A catastrophic boom in jobs, a catastrophic reduction in energy costs and even a catastrophic improvement in health conditions for all.
The recipe for the most “catastrophically positive” energy transition scenario
- Decarbonize energy systems by 2035 in advanced economies and by 2040 for other countries.
- Phase out coal-fired power generation domestically by 2030 in advanced economies and by 2040 in other countries, at the latest, combined with an immediate halt to the construction of new coal-fired capacity.
- Increase the deployment of renewable energy to reach 60-80% of power generation by 2030 in advanced economies.
- Increase public spending on energy efficiency, including setting spending targets equivalent to other crisis response measures, in recognition of the vital role of energy efficiency in achieving energy security.
- Commit to 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales for new light-duty vehicles by 2035 and phase out internal combustion vehicles.
- Put a meaningful price on carbon that increases and converges to a uniform global price over time and reflects the full costs of climate change.
- Set national action plans in 2022 to redirect financial flows away from fossil fuels towards energy efficiency, renewable energy and other measures to support a people-centered and equitable clean energy transition.
Let's start with work
In the midst of an era of mental pandemics (among overscrolling e indifference) everything is scary. Even the possibility that giving up fossil fuels is something good for the economy as well as health. The report of Cambridge Econometrics try to clarify things better, addressing the open questions one by one, with the math in hand.
One of the main concerns related to the energy transition and the abandonment of fossil fuels, for example, is the loss of jobs. What will happen to coal and natural gas workers? The report reveals that while some jobs in these sectors will disappear, many more will be created in renewable energy and energy efficiency. And this is a significant number of opportunities in the fields of construction, utilities and other sectors related to clean energy.
I quote:
All countries will see increased employment during the energy transition, with the United States adding more than one million jobs over the next 10 years.
But that's not all.
Energy transition, cost cutting: hundreds of billions in savings
Another widespread fear concerns the weight of the expenses to be made to actually achieve the energy transition. Here the study shows that, despite requiring a gigantic initial investment (around 320 billion euros per year for 30 years, from 2020 to 2050) the long-term savings will be far greater.
By the 40s of this century, the energy transition could lead to over 700 billion euros in savings per year, resulting from the reduction of energy costs and system losses. All this, sorry if I repeat myself but I care, without taking into account other benefits such as the reduction of diseases linked to pollution.
Health Benefits: Clean Air and Saved Lives
Air pollution caused by fossil fuels is responsible for numerous health problems, from asthma to heart disease. Cities like New Delhi and Beijing or areas like the Po Valley they are marred by unhealthy air, and the pollution it causes approximately 9 million deaths per year worldwide.
By switching to renewable energy, we can significantly reduce air pollution, resulting in fewer related illnesses and a cleaner environment for all. Try to be afraid of this prospect too.
Energy transition, plausible and preferable scenarios
The accelerated decarbonization scenario outlined in the report envisions a future where countries will catch up net zero CO2 emissions by the mid-50s. Yes, this energy transition is the most expensive of all. It requires considerable public and private investment, but guess what? It is also one that ultimately leads to a more sustainable and resilient economy.
Remember when we thought it was impossible to stop people from smoking in public spaces, and now we can't even fathom the idea? Change is difficult, but once people realize the benefits to themselves and their health, things stabilize and become normal.
Whether you believe it or not, and especially if you don't believe it, investing in renewables means building a future with better results for the economy and for jobs. With only one very real risk: that of finding cleaner air to breathe.
Let's put aside the hesitation, please
I will be brief. The idea that the energy transition will destroy the economy does not stand up to the evidence.
To put it in the professor's words Rob Alexander, professor of economics and environmental studies whose essay inspired this article of mine:
Even if climate change wasn't such a pressing issue, switching to renewable energy would make sense from a purely economic point of view. Given the need to avoid the most serious impacts of climate change, the issue is not even up for debate. The transition to a renewable energy infrastructure
It's a win-win situation for our company in every way.
Switching to “green” energy doesn't just mean protecting the environment. It means creating a stronger and more resilient economy. Even just considering energy security and sovereignty (more local renewable energy sources, instead of being at the mercy of kingdoms and capricious dictatorships that manage oil and various hydrocarbons).
The energy transition, upon closer inspection, is a moral transition. It is the prospect of moving towards a world in which an entire species does not cause unnecessary death and suffering on its own. Or, if you prefer a low profile, pay lower energy bills and have more jobs available.
It's time to decisively embrace this perspective and make another mental transition from fear to clarity. Because the more support the mission to green the planet gets, the faster it will get there.
