A new study conducted byOliver Wyman Forum and by 'Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS) University of California-Berkeley (I link it here) offers us several ideas. The knot? What the future of transport will look like. The message is clear: alternative mobility services, from ride sharing to e-scooters, will grow between now and 2030 at twice the speed of traditional public transport.
This is a real earthquake: with the increase in electric transport modes, it could improve air quality, reduce the carbon footprint of cities (and noise pollution).
A little paradise? No.
There is no coin without its reverse: and a world in which ride sharing and individual transport outperform the mass ones could worsen traffic conditions.
Because? You know that. Subways, buses and mass transit are by far the most efficient and environmentally friendly ways to move people around cities. Still, the last 3 years may have sealed the fate of this mode.
For two reasons. First: during the pandemic, many people shunned mass transportation in favor of shared bicycles, scooters and car services (emblematic the case of Manila, in the Philippines). According to: the lack of revenue has severely weakened the public transport systems of many cities.
The mass transport show-down
In the study, the researchers analyzed 13 mobility-related services in North America, Europe and Asia. The data?
- It is estimated a global market of 660 billion dollars for new mobility services by 2030. In 2020 it was 260 billion dollars: it will be a boom.
- These services are expected to increase on average by almost 10% per year, compared to 5% for the transport sector in general.
- The biggest growth? With an average of 23% per year, it will come from “semi-mature and emerging services”: recharging electric vehicles, ride sharing of bicycles and scooters, carpooling services and the like.
Ride sharing and escooter: three reasons for a tsunami
The study found that three factors are driving the growth of new mobility services:
- Technology: Ease of use, long-range batteries and integrated mobile applications make scooters and electric bicycles more practical.
- Rules: To influence public transport choices, cities use a mix of taxes, subsidies and infrastructure investments.
- Question: People want simple individual mobility at low prices. This could be the crucial factor for the growth of ride sharing and escooter on traditional mass transit.
