The University of Illinois has launched a first-of-its-kind volcano prediction modeling project. The program, which harnesses the computing power of university supercomputers such as Blue Waters and iForge, correctly predicted an eruption at Sierra Negra in Ecuador in June 2018.
The research was published in Science Advances, e I link it to you here. And it has, as is easy to imagine, a very long gestation. It starts from 2008, when researchers reconstructed in detail (in terms of data, obviously) the eruption of the Okmok volcano in Alaska. Monitoring the activity of the Sierra Negra volcano in 2017, to the geologist Patricia Gregg it came to mind to compare the data collected with those of the model obtained years earlier from the Okmok volcanic eruptions.
It was just a test, of course, but it delivered astounding results.
Predict volcanic eruptions months in advance
According to the comparison (made in January 2018) between the data of the Sierra Negra and the model developed thanks to the Okmok volcano, between 25 June and 5 July of that same year the rocks that supported the magma chamber of the Sierra Negra risked shattering, leading to volcanic eruptions.
This prediction-conclusion was presented at a scientific conference two months later, in March 2018.
“Spot on” forecast
“After the presentation,” Gregg says, “we got busy with other work and didn't look at our models again until a colleague emailed me on June 26, asking me to confirm the date we had planned. Sierra Negra exploded exactly one day after our first scheduled date.”
Given the volcano's past activity, Sierra Negra undoubtedly represents an ideal case to test such a model: but the results are so encouraging that Gregg and her collaborators are working to improve the model's prediction capabilities for other volcanoes.
“Now we also have a lot of data from Sierra Negra, in addition to that from Okmok, and we are starting to examine other eruptions,” says the researcher. The target? Provide forecasts for any active volcano around the world, and months in advance.
Not bad, given the fact that the latest efforts (by New Zealand researchers) they aimed to get “just” 48 hours of lead time on an eruption.
Fortunately, Vesuvius seems calm. They say.
