How many have we seen this year? And to think we were convinced we had seen it all in 2020! In any case, we are here. And although some of my past predictions have been spectacularly proven wrong (of course, I'm not a magician), there are several reasons why you should continue reading this article.
First of all it's delicious. And secondly it is not really a horoscope: take it more as a tool that can direct conversations about the future in the right directions. In other words, with these predictions I don't offer answers, but the opportunity to ask you good questions.
You are ready? Here are my predictions in black and white, ready to be denied on December 31, 2022.
The new space race will explode innovations
The “old” space race led to a lot of technologies and inventions accessible to the general public. Wireless headphones, computer mice, LED lights, cordless handheld vacuum cleaners, freeze-dried foods, air purifiers, memory foam, anti-scratch lenses, solar cells. I'm definitely forgetting something. And all to tell the Russians (or the Americans) "I got there first!".
In 2022 we will not be an exception, on the contrary. My predictions say that the three-way "fight" between Branson, Bezos e Musk they will continue to fire everything and more into space: and for everything sent into orbit there will be a version of it, or a corresponding technology, ready to end up on the terrestrial market in the next few years.
NFTs won't boom
I'm playing this one, it's already challenging. Oh yes, because they are a bit of a star this year: NFTs are on everyone's lips. I'm sure it's my problem, but I find them a sensational hoax. At least in their current guise.
NFTs Will Disappoint Again, I also wrote this a few days ago. They create a fake scarcity, they are not as centralized as they would have us believe and they claim to put a price on our popular culture too (the auction on the first text message screams revenge). If they were a nativity scene I wouldn't like it: and trust me, I know what I'm talking about, I'm Neapolitan.
It will be a passing fad, gentlemen. Blockchain may be a great thing, but these NFTs are limp: if you're getting excited about working on them, think twice.
Cryptocurrencies will grow badly
Cryptocurrencies, unlike NFTs, are even useful: the industry within which they evolve is rapidly growing (also thanks to greater public attention towards blockchain).
Not just Bitcoin (and Ethereum, and Shiba Inu, etc.) anyway. According to forecasts, Stablecoins will emerge as a new form of currency. The European Parliament is considering their adoption: they should make money transfers safer and laundering more difficult. The use of stablecoins is expected to increase in 2022 with new rules.
There is no shortage (and unfortunately there will be) the shadows: scams are still prevalent, this year the “get rich quick” mirage has set confidence in cryptocurrencies back a few years.
Spotify will create or host AI-generated music
Spotify is a good application. Music is all in one place and people can find what they want to hear: and they can also find the music that other people are listening to. Spotify has a ton of data on what people listen to and when they do, no one else has that much data on music.
Do you understand where I'm getting at? Here you are. All this data and musical preferences can help create something we've been trying to create for a long time: music generated by artificial intelligence. Decent music, I mean, not more or less structured sound jumbles. An evolution of what has been done by Open AI in the past years (I also talked about it here).
I might be wrong in my predictions by a few years, but I think I'm right in general: just as Netflix creates films and series today, Spotify will also "create" its own artists, songs and bands. At the beginning with real people, but later with models who will sing and play what each person likes, tailoring things around the single individual.
We will be spending a lot of money on AR / VR
Facebook and other companies want to convince us that the Metaverse will create incredible riches. And they're putting a ton of money into these developments.
Whatever the Metaverse looks like, it won't be (just) about software. We will also need visors, sensors, cameras, haptic gloves, headphones. In the next year, the predictions in this sense are easy: we will start spending a lot on gadgets that are increasingly closer to (co)creating immersive environments.
That they are a business meeting or a mass, the remote will get closer.
Synthetic biology will move closer to the market
How wonderful nature is! Inimitable. Or almost: synthetic biology is taking its first steps. In 2022, companies will start selling something “artificially natural” (or naturally artificial, you name it).
Fabrics? Bioplastics? Medicines? Biofuels? Something will come out. Score.
Foldable phones will be back in fashion
The good times of the StarTac for an old man like me bring sighs. But, hey, if you have a lot of cash, those times could be back! Foldable phones, amigo. They are both vintage and modern now. They open like that Samsung clamshell that I carried in a tiny pocket in 2003, but then they show you the fencing.
Did I say Samsung? Of course. They are the masters of this flashback, and according to forecasts they will push the accelerator. Sooner or later we will put away the bar of soap we all have and go back to the foldable. I don't know if I will in 2022 (I doubt it), but foldable phones will take over the mainstream.
The technological world will still be disrupted (and renewed) by Covid
Do you know what happened the last time we had a “black swan” economic crisis? Uber and Airbnb were born. A trivial matter, they have just revolutionized the urban transport and rental market. And now? It is likely that the new Uber will emerge in the field of food delivery. Or not?
However, forecasts are not made as I do. Often they also take into account subsequent trends. For example: Covid arrives and everyone closes in. Those who observe this trend invest in the delivery market. Those who look further imagine that a long-term consequence could be to make kitchens smaller, because they cook less, and to use the extra space to put sports equipment. And so it invests in sports equipment for the home.
A stupid example, but it serves to make people understand why innovations often do not come from the field that everyone would expect.
Mental health technology will grow out of all proportion
That certain pandemic you may have heard of caused the biggest mental health crisis the world has recently remembered. Everywhere we read of more suicides, more depression, more anxiety.
Even when things start to go a lot better we will have to deal with all the toads and pain we have swallowed in all this time. And this is where the health technology market comes in, specifically the mental one.
Whether it's face-to-face or online, a lot of more people will visit a psychologist: this (in the medium to long term) is good news, after all.
Startups aiming to improve our sleep will grow badly (and maybe start to work well)
I don't know about you, but I've been sleeping very badly for 2 years. Perhaps it also applies to many of you: work, little girl, Covid. It is difficult to indulge in a precious restful sleep when (a little) Eros and (a lot) Thanatos buzz in our heads.
If a company manages to give us an (effective) way to increase and improve sleep it will make a splash that will be remembered. And I'm not just saying this: it's no coincidence that startups in the field are blooming like flowers in May.
Among my predictions, what may be more of a hope than anything else: one of these startups will skyrocket to the top because it is more effective than the others. And it will solve a big problem for us.
General considerations on the technological predictions of this post
In 2022, Big Tech will continue to face ethical questions (without solving them): for the “easy predictions” series. We will continue to ask ourselves questions like “Do we want to continue spying on billions of people?”, “Should we treat our employees like human beings?”, “Is inciting genocide okay?”, “Should we continue to provide technology to authoritarian governments?”. The answers seem obvious, but they never come.
Other easy predictions: technology “will also do good things”
In 2022, technology will continue to help reduce infant mortality and deaths from infectious diseases. Great medical advances will be made, education will be democratized, and green technologies will emerge as a long-term force for good.
Afraid of these predictions?
Technology shouldn't scare us too much. After all, it is something that we have done, we have a duty to be present to it, to do our part so as not to send it adrift. Technology can be good or bad for society. It's up to all of us to make sure it's good.
As? In the way we can: from protesting on Twitter to a company that doesn't work well to voting for other parties if those in government don't do what they should. If we work together in our small way, the best predictions will come true and I will be proud of it. The worst ones won't come true, and you can make fun of me :)
