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The year 2000 is back. Do you remember? All techno-enthusiasts and hunting for Eldorado (many speculative bubbles, then). Today the new Klondike is located next to places called "cryptocurrencies" and "NFT".
An overrated persistence: apart from the blockade of those who move by hearsay, in fact, those who chew on technology keep their eyes open a little. And he tries to warn us too. Shall we throw some cold water to calm the hot spirits?
The excess of expectations could still favor those who will be able to ride the new trends, but it will hurt everyone else: if in doubt, and I tell you as an advertiser, here are some ideas to make you think about 5 trends.
Any of these, I'm afraid, could be overrated in a year's time.
1 The Metaverse
I, like so many others, I've been buzzing around the Metaverse for years. AR and VR are considered by many people to be the next thing after cell phones. Nobody knows exactly what it will be like yet. Of one thing I am certain: there is a lot of arrogance in the idea that only one company can say "The Metaverse c'est moi". No single party, nor any single platform, will represent all that the Internet has to offer. No modes, no interfaces will come to completely dominate our experience.
Facebook's version of the Metaverse is based on the idea that people will choose to escape the "real world" to interact in an artificial (sponsored) world. But people, on the contrary, adapt to what computing has always done for us: to add something to our real environment. This is why I believe that the fear that everyone disappears inside a viewer is overrated.
In most cases, we don't want to enter our computer. We want it to work in an environment where life happens: at the table, on the train, out and about with friends. The cell phone, for example: he did, he had a significant impact on how we interact with technology. Wearable mobile computing and perhaps mixed reality someday will have a significant influence on how people act. Always in the same way, however: to amplify what we already experience.
More than a Metaverse, a "superverse": ours.
2 NFT
You may not know the name Mike Winkelman, but you may have heard of Beeple, his pseudonym as a digital artist. In March, its Non-Fungible Token (NFT) was sold for $ 69 million. Since that time, Beeple and NFTs have grown in popularity, generating trade for over 10 billion dollars and a new "gold rush". Yet few people still know exactly what it is.
Fans of the "new digital art" (but that's not all) are mostly cryptocurrency collectors and males. I would also add the fans, but who knows these "fan tokens" which turn they will take. In the US, 20% of adult males said they already have an NFT, compared to 7% of adult women.
I'm not saying it will be a hoax. But I say that perhaps it is too early: despite the attention of brands and public figures, NFTs are in their nascent (and above all experimental) phase. The long-term value of these "digital properties" must exceed that of short-term speculation: who knows if and when that will happen. We'll talk about it again with the extended advent of the metaverse (see above).
Certainly absolutely not in 2022.
An "NFT tsunami" for the next year is absolutely overrated.
3 The cult of efficiency
One of the hallmarks of our obsession with efficiency is the idea that the better we can analyze trends and predict the future, the more efficient, and therefore successful, we will become. For most of human existence, little has changed.
Before, it was much easier to predict the future because it wasn't that different from our past and present. In recent decades, the pace of change has increased dramatically, but has nonetheless followed logical trajectories. Now, our future is not as clear as it was before. Our cult of the power of prediction is utterly overrated: and this "myth" of efficiency has created a fragile system that can easily fail when times are tough, like now.
The world has shown us that a small divergence from our collective predictions is enough to blow all our systems. During past crises and recessions, manufacturers were left with surpluses of items that they simply couldn't sell. As a result, there has been a concerted effort over the past decade to minimize inventory build-up. They call them "just-in-time networks". Beautiful. Then the prices go up a bit, or a virus arrives, and we all find ourselves queuing for toilet paper. Or for semiconductors. Or for raw materials. The cult of efficiency becomes an illusion in such a world. The cult of efficiency is overrated.
Companies that develop systems to deal with the unexpected by prioritizing agility and adaptability over efficiency will be the only ones to survive.
4 Virtual reality
Synopsis: When a worldwide pandemic traps everyone in their homes, depriving them of travel and contact with other human beings, VR and AR leap to the top of people's desires. Right? No. Wrong. Virtual reality and augmented reality are still looking for a large audience. Despite the fact that anyone with the ability to pay 300 euros for a viewer was more than incentivized to take refuge in any world but this one.
The boom for these technologies was overrated last year, and will be overrated this year too.
Then we'll talk about it later, of course, I don't doubt it. Later, if and when.
5 Remote / hybrid work
Why do I add "remote work" and "hybrid work" to my list of overrated material? Just me who this year started to believe in it a lot?
It's not that I don't recognize its importance: (for sad reasons) it is important and it will be very important in the coming months as well. It's just that I think we've focused too much on the wrong side of the future of work.
The future of work is not remote or hybrid work experiences. They are happy experiences. A place without trauma, that is, without any event or experience that brings emotional, physical, spiritual or psychological damage.
The world is rocked by the chaos of COVID-19 and employee resignations rise to an all-time high as companies fail to implement employee welfare initiatives and strategies. 2020 caused many people to look at their current workplaces and realize they deserved something that was overdue: the best.
For remote and hybrid work to become better, organizations need to understand that trauma isn't just an individual problem, it's an organizational problem. Until then, even remote or hybrid work will be little more than an illusion.
