The year 2000 is back. Do you remember? Everyone techno-enthusiasts and in search of El Dorado (many speculative bubbles, then). Today the new Klondike sits next to places called “cryptocurrencies” and “NFTs.”
An overrated fury: apart from the blockade of those who move based on hearsay, in fact, those who chew technology keep their eyes open a little. And he tries to warn us too. Shall we throw some cold water to calm the hot spirits?
The excess of expectations could still benefit those who know how to ride the new trends, but it will hurt everyone else: if in doubt, and I tell you this as an advertiser, here are some ideas to make you reflect on 5 trends.
Any of these, I'm afraid, could be overrated in a year's time.
The Metaverse
I, like so many others, I've been buzzing around the Metaverse for years. AR and VR are considered by many people to be the next thing after mobile phones. No one yet knows exactly what it will be like. I am certain of only one thing: there is a lot of arrogance in the idea that a single company can say “The Metaverse c'est moi”. No single party, nor any single platform, will represent all that the Internet has to offer. No modes, no interfaces will come to completely dominate our experience.
Facebook's version of the Metaverse is based on the idea that people will choose to escape the "real world" to interact in an artificial (sponsored) world. But people, on the contrary, adapt to what computing has always done for us: add something to our real environment. This is why I believe that the fear of everyone disappearing inside a viewer is overrated.
In most cases, we don't want to get into our computer. We want it to work in an environment where life happens: at the dinner table, on the train, hanging out with friends. The cell phone, for example: yes, it has had a significant impact on how we interact with technology. Wearable mobile computing and perhaps one day mixed reality will have a significant influence on how people act. Always in the same way, however: amplifying what we already experience.
More than a Metaverse, a “superverse”: ours.
NFT
You may not know the name Mike Winkelman, but you may have heard of Beeple, his pseudonym as a digital artist. In March, its Non-Fungible Token (NFT) was sold for $ 69 million. Since that time, Beeple and NFTs have grown in popularity, generating trade for over 10 billion dollars and a new “gold rush”. Yet, there are still few people who know exactly what it is.
Fans of "new digital art" (but it's not just that) are mostly cryptocurrency collectors and male. I would also add the fans, but who knows what direction these “fan tokens” will take. In the US, 20% of adult males said they already own an NFT, compared to 7% of adult females.
I'm not saying it will be a hoax. However, I say that perhaps it is too early: despite the attention of brands and public figures, NFTs are in their nascent (and above all experimental) phase. The long-term value of these “digital properties” must exceed that of short-term speculation: who knows if and when that will happen. We'll talk about it again with the extended advent of the metaverse (see above).
Certainly absolutely not in 2022.
An “NFT tsunami” for next year is absolutely overrated.
The cult of efficiency
One of the hallmarks of our obsession with efficiency is the idea that the better we can analyze trends and predict the future, the more efficient, and therefore successful, we will become. For most of human existence, little has changed.
It used to be much easier to predict the future because it wasn't that different from our past and present. In recent decades, the pace of change has increased dramatically, but has still followed logical trajectories. Now, our future is not as clear as it was before. Our cult of the power of prediction is grossly overrated: and this “myth” of efficiency has created a fragile system that can easily fail when times are tough, like now.
The world has shown us that all it takes is a small divergence from our collective predictions to screw up all our systems. During past crises and recessions, manufacturers were left with surpluses of items they simply couldn't sell. As a result, over the last decade, there has been a concerted effort to minimize inventory buildup. They call them “just-in-time networks”. Beautiful. Then prices go up a bit, or a virus comes along, and we all find ourselves queuing for toilet paper. Or for semiconductors. Or for raw materials. The cult of efficiency becomes an illusion in such a world. The cult of efficiency is overrated.
Companies that develop systems to deal with the unexpected by prioritizing agility and adaptability over efficiency will be the only ones to survive.
Virtual reality
Synopsis: When a global pandemic traps everyone in their homes, depriving them of travel and contact with other humans, VR and AR rise to the top of people's desires. Right? No. Wrong. Virtual reality and augmented reality are still looking for a large audience. Despite the fact that anyone who had the ability to pay 300 euros for a headset was more than incentivized to take refuge in any world but this one.
The boom for these technologies was overestimated last year, and will be overestimated this year too.
Then we'll talk about it later, of course, I don't doubt it. Later, if and when.
Remote / hybrid work
Why am I adding “remote work” and “hybrid work” to my list of overrated stuff? Am I the one who started to believe in it a lot this year?
It's not that I don't recognize its importance: (for sad reasons) it is important and will be very important in the coming months too. It's that I think we've been overly focused on the wrong aspect of the future of work.
The future of work is not remote or hybrid work experiences. They are happy experiences. A place without trauma, that is, without any event or experience that brings emotional, physical, spiritual or psychological damage.
The world is rocked by the chaos of COVID-19 and employee resignations rise to an all-time high as companies fail to implement employee welfare initiatives and strategies. 2020 caused many people to look at their current workplaces and realize they deserved something that was overdue: the best.
For remote and hybrid work to become better, organizations must understand that trauma is not just an individual problem, it is an organizational problem. Until that time, even remote or hybrid work will be little more than an illusion.
