Less than 30 years to 2050. Time-wise, we are already beyond the beginning of that future: many of the scenarios we will see in the coming decades are being built today. And there's one big one like that that can change the others. How much will China grow in the next few years?
Secondo a report from the RAND corporation we must prepare for an increasingly driven dialectic between China and the USA, especially if in line with Chinese strategies the next few years will see a clear economic and technological overtaking.
For RAND, the United States must take into account a scenario that sees the People's Republic of China growing rapidly or even predominant: a scenario that would make things more complex, even on the military level.
The report's authors argue that the kind of country China will become, and how its military strength will evolve are neither preordained nor completely beyond the influence of the United States or the United States. However, strong mutual concerns and suspicions about national security may undermine all attempts to improve bilateral relations made in recent years.
Covid-19 as a detonator
“The COVID-19 experience was a great example,” he says Andrew Scobell, lead author of the study and political analyst of RAND, a non-profit research organization. It wasn't difficult to predict it, I mentioned it here myself. “Beijing's secretive approach to the pandemic has exacerbated tensions with other countries, including the US, contributing to economic 'decoupling' between China and some of its major trading partners. Beijing appears to have been effective in managing the pandemic at home, but this has been achieved through draconian and repressive measures."
What will China and its military look like in 2050? How will relations between China and the USA look like in 2050?
To map potential future scenarios, researchers studied trends in the management of politics and society and analyzed specific strategies and plans of the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party. In particular, those implemented to promote their vision of a well-governed, socially stable, economically prosperous, technologically advanced and militarily powerful China. The deadline? 2049, centenary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
Four scenarios, one war (hopefully cold)
The report is based on an observation of Chinese and Western literature on the PRC's long-term strategic plans and objectives. It also includes official statements from high-level Chinese officials and institutions, speeches from prominent leaders, white papers published by the Ministry of Defense and other PRC government agencies. It even considers authoritative People's Liberation Army (PLA) texts, as well as Western analyzes and other non-Chinese versions of these documents.
The report describes four possible scenarios for China in the middle of the century (triumphant, ascending, stagnant and implosive) with the two much more likely plants.
If China proves to be on the rise, the US should also foresee military risks for the armed forces already threatened in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, as well as a loss of the ability to operate habitually in the air and maritime space of the western Pacific.
The report hopes the U.S. military is prepared for a China whose role in Asia and the Pacific will steadily grow.
The possible sparks
To prepare for a possible military conflict between China and the US in such circumstances, the United States could deploy stronger cybernetic and network attack capabilities and other means of countering Chinese unmanned aerial systems, say the authors of the report.
They should optimize their deterrent skills, transport troops and equipment to hot spots, and synergy with allied forces.
The level of detail of the report seems quite warlike, but the trend does not warrant great optimism.
The tariff war. The ostracism towards Chinese 5G, the economic and judicial blows inflicted on Huawei. The cross accusations of despotism and racism for the events in Hong Kong and American riots. Even the fears of a “technological leap” source of sightings of unidentified objects.
