No Result
View All Result
Tuesday, 29 December 2020
Chinese (Simplified)EnglishFrenchGermanItalianJapanesePortugueseRussianSpanish
  • |
  • Tech
  • Medicine
  • Society
  • Environment
  • Spazio
  • Transportation
  • Weather
  • concepts
  • H+
No Result
View All Result

Covid-19 Updates »

14 September 2020
in Weather

The USA towards a new civil war?

Chinese (Simplified)EnglishFrenchGermanItalianJapanesePortugueseRussianSpanish

Collaborate!

We are open to visions about the future. Submit an article, disclose the results of a search or scientific discoveries, shows points of view on a theme, tells about a change.

CONTACT US
The USA towards a new civil war?
Share97Pin11Tweet30SendShare8
tags: Civil warMathematical modelsUSA

A mathematical model developed in the 90s accurately predicted the unrest in the U.S. in 2020. Now it goes further, drawing American civil war scenarios.

Gianluca Ricciodi Gianluca Riccio
4 minutes of reading

The last

The speaker for the mood with music and aromatherapy? An olfactory Nespresso

A house of wood, straw and cork: LCA and the “barn” of the third millennium

Deeper Smart Sonar Pro +, fishing with the mini depth sounder

Rootine, personalized vitamins based on DNA

A UV-LED kills Covid. The team: "Let's use it in ventilation systems"

Read also:

Street Art, Leon Keer's crazy 3D mural comes to life in AR

Street Art, Leon Keer's crazy 3D mural comes to life in AR

Birth rate Italy, Covid knocks it down to the lowest levels ever

Birth rate Italy, Covid knocks it down to the lowest levels ever

This mobile hospital travels on wheels to treat patients faster

This mobile hospital travels on wheels to treat patients faster

Why Christmas decorations in Saudi Arabia are epochal news

Why Christmas decorations in Saudi Arabia are epochal news

Covid mutation

First study on the mutation of Covid in the UK: good and bad news

KSTAR, the Korean artificial sun sets a new record

KSTAR, the Korean artificial sun sets a new record

Jupe, a luxury retreat created by the all-star team of former Tesla, SpaceX and AirBnB

Jupe, a luxury retreat created by the all-star team of former Tesla, SpaceX and AirBnB

Nesos, the neuromodulation earphones that treat diseases

Nesos, the neuromodulation earphones that treat diseases

Fishway Pipe, the fish lift highway passes over the dikes

Fishway Pipe, the fish lift highway passes over the dikes

modular pc

Modular Workstation Computer, modular PC that you build like a Lego

honey jar with honey comb

“Honey made without bees”: MeliBio, botany and biology

arctic warming

Study suggests: Arctic warming depends on large earthquakes

Read also:

The speaker for the mood with music and aromatherapy? An olfactory Nespresso

The speaker for the mood with music and aromatherapy? An olfactory Nespresso

Ten years ago a model calibrated on the political and social stability of States (and their eventual collapse) accurately anticipated the current unrest in the USA.


"Political instability in the United States," he said, "Will peak around 2020." Its authors at the time claim that events now lead to a possible new American civil war.

In the early 90s, when Bill Clinton was in the White House and the United States seemed stable and looking forward, the administration appointed the sociologist. Jack Goldstone. Nothing was more impossible than a civil war in America when Goldstone started working. His task? Develop a model to predict how states failed. The thought obviously did not turn to the USA, but to other states. Few expected that his model would later predict the collapse of his own country.

Maybe you are also interested

US elections: an AI has already chosen the perfect bipartisan president

China and the USA: it's the new (hopefully) cold war, baby

The decline of the USA is the future of the western world

Coronavirus can detonate US-China relations

In an unpublished peer-reviewed article, Professor Goldstone e Peter Turchin, an expert in mathematical models historical societies have concluded that, after so many American wars around the world, the United States is "headed for another American civil war".

The conditions for the civil war, they say, are the worst since the 19th century (especially the years preceding the start of the American civil war in 1861).

The last great "civil" war in America: the American Civil War

An internal war, it is appropriate to say. The history of the American Civil War is short but devastating. For 4 years the American war raged, in fact, between two Americas. The United States of America, and another group of "mutiny" states (Confederate States of America, an entity that arose out of a form of splitting) fought a bitter war, the daughter of an economic and political secession.

The causes of the American Civil War lie in the interdiction of slavery. An action decided by the republican party of Abraham Lincoln, who later became president. A group of states, the Southerners, believed that their constitutional rights were violated and formed the "Southern" group of states before Lincoln was established.

All attempts at compromise failed, and the US Civil War was born. The Southern action of waging battle triggered the spark. The dead? So many: an estimated 750.000 among the soldiers alone. Eventually the Northerners won, the Southerners lost the Civil War. But somewhere in the American social fabric and in the "moral" heirs of Northerners and Southerners, it seems that the grudge is still smoldering under the ashes.

civil war in america
American secession war map - states divided into free and enslaved over the years

A new American civil war. Because?

The reason for predicting the American Civil War lies in trends that began in the 80s. “Inequalities, selfish elites and polarization, attitudes that have reached the highest level today. To the point of paralyzing the US government's ability to create an effective response to the pandemic disease, ”they write.

This state of affairs also "hampered our ability to offer an inclusive economic aid policy, and exacerbated tensions over racial injustice."

Professor Goldstone is an authority on George Mason University. A leading scholar in the field of long-term revolutions and social change. A profound connoisseur who knows the civil wars today and yesterday inside out.

The Goldstone model and its predictions (spot on)

The model developed by Goldstone and Turchin keeps track of the most disparate data. The ratio of average workers' wages to GDP per capita, life expectancy, average height and the number of new millionaires. It also measures political polarization or the degree of overlap between ideological areas.

Applied to the history of the United States, it perfectly "predicts" the civil war of 1861 and the unrest of the 30s, racial segregation and the advent of fascism. To put it in a nutshell: the model now sees the United States at war, but with itself.

Ten years ago, Professor Turchin pointed to his model towards the future and made an incredibly accurate prediction.

Just like in the 1850s, crisis indicators were on the rise, he wrote in the journal Nature. “They could be a reliable indicator of impending instability. They seem destined to reach their peak around 2020 ”. In other words, the next US war could be internal.

Today he expects more and worse. Will he still be right? Is the US heading for a new civil war?

Comment this post on all the social networks where Futuroprossimo.it is present ( Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, Telegram, Linkedin, Vkontakte, Flipboard )

The future of:

Artificial intelligence

Japan will launch a dating service: here is the state Tinder (with AI)

transhumanism

A special hyperbaric therapy can stop and reverse aging

Super Gadgets

Out Of, the Italian startup is sold out with the photovoltaic ski mask

Design

The Tulip, the spectacular “tulip” skyscraper in London

Most read of the week

  • honey jar with honey comb

    “Honey made without bees”: MeliBio, botany and biology

    359 shares
    Share 144 Tweet 90
  • Street Art, Leon Keer's crazy 3D mural comes to life in AR

    218 shares
    Share 87 Tweet 55
  • KSTAR, the Korean artificial sun sets a new record

    131 shares
    Share 52 Tweet 33

The last

Microplastics are also found in the placenta of unborn babies

Airbus unveils new details on ZeroE, a hydrogen plane powered by "capsules".

80 Italian doctors in government: "the relationship between vitamin D and Covid ignored"

Holotron, the exoskeleton that will make us walk (and run) in virtual reality

Radio signal from Proxima Centauri: that's why they are hardly aliens

Next article
Space Perspective, no rockets: you go to space in a hot air balloon

Space Perspective, no rockets: you go to space in a hot air balloon

Futuroprossimo.it is an Italian resource of futurology opened since 2006: every day news about the near future. Scientific discoveries, medical research, prototypes, concepts and predictions about the future for free.

Tag

Environment Architecture Communication concepts Advice Energy Events Gadgets The future of yesterday The newspaper of tomorrow Medicine Military Weather Robotica Society Spazio Technology transhumanism Transportation Video

Categories

The author

Gianluca Riccio, copywriter and journalist - Born in 1975, he is the creative director of an advertising agency, he is affiliated with the Italian Institute for the Future, World Future Society and H +, Network of Italian Transhumanists.

Collaborate! Are you interested in writing a post on Futuroprossimo? Click here for contacts.

Home / Author / IDEA / archive / Advertising on FP

© 2020 Futuroprossimo - Tailored by Be Here

© 2020 Futuroprossimo - Tailored by Be Here

  • Home
  • Contact us
  • archive
  • Technology
  • Medicine
  • Transportation
  • Weather
  • Society
  • Environment
  • transhumanism

© 2019 Futuroprossimo - Tailored by To be here

This site uses cookies. By continuing to read it, you consent to their use.