The world has just begun to leave Covid behind, and on the horizon the media buzz is already looming the shadow of the next pandemic. No bats or pangolins, this time it could come from a “familiar” guest: poultry. Bird flu, caused by the virus H5N1, is in fact recording a worrying increase in cases, not only among birds but also in mammals.
Since 2023 there has been a small but significant surge in people getting infected, with a mortality rate of 30%. It was enough for H5N1 to quickly climb the priority list for health authorities around the world. The question on everyone’s mind is: will this be the next big pandemic threat?
H5N1: A Growing Threat
Avian influenza H5N1 is not a newcomer to the scene of potentially pandemic zoonoses. This virus has been circulating for years in wild birds and poultry farms, periodically causing highly fatal outbreaks. Lately, however, something seems to have changed. The virus is showing a worrying tendency to adapt to new hosts: several outbreaks have been detected in dairy cattle in several countries, and even in horses in Mongolia.
But it is above all, as I was saying, the leap in human infections that is ringing the alarm bells. H5N1 seems to have developed a greater ability to infect our species. So far, infections seem to derive mainly from direct contact with infected animals or from the consumption of raw milk, and the virus does not yet show sustained transmission from human to human. But this could change, leading to the next pandemic.
The Mutation Everyone Fears
What separates H5N1 from its ability to spread effectively among humans It could be a single, fateful genetic mutation. This is what emerges from a recent study published on Science (I link it here) who analyzed the viral genome.
Influenza viruses, to infect cells, must bind to specific surface receptors called sialic acid. Avian viruses are adapted to the “avian” version of these receptors, but with some modifications they could also perfectly attach to human ones.
A single point mutation in a key protein, researchers warn, could give H5N1 the feared ability to transmit between humans. With current mortality rates of 30%, that prospect makes even the most optimistic optimists tremble. If the virus were to acquire this ability, the world could face a new, devastating pandemic within months or even weeks.
The spectre of a new global emergency, with the scars of Covid still fresh, appears to many as an inescapable fate. For example, the United Kingdom has already purchased 5 million doses of H5 vaccine, capable of protecting against avian influenza, in preparation for that risk in 2025.
Is this really the case, then? Are we starting over again? Are we condemned to chase one pathogen after another, in an endless whirlwind of lockdowns and restrictions? The answer, fortunately, is no. Preventing the next pandemic is not only possible, but a duty. And the key is to move from reaction to prevention.
The next pandemic? No kidding. Anticipate, don't chase
For too long, the global approach to pandemics has been reactive: waiting for a new pathogen to emerge and spread, then taking action with containment measures, drugs and vaccines. But this paradigm has shown all its limits with Covid: even the fastest responses they still give the virus time to infect millions of people and send entire health systems and economies into a tailspin.
The main way to break this cycle is through anticipation: identify potentially pandemic pathogens before they jump between species, study their evolution, and develop countermeasures in advance. This is the philosophy of the so-called “moonshot” of pandemics, an ambitious research and surveillance program that aims to neutralize emerging threats at birth.
The first pillar of this strategy is the capillary monitoring circulation of high-risk viruses, such as avian influenza, in animal populations. This requires unprecedented collaboration between often separate sectors, such as veterinary and human public health, the environment, and agriculture. Only by mapping the ecology and evolution of these pathogens in real time will we be able to anticipate and prevent their species jump.
A radar for viruses
Let's be clear: monitoring is not enough: it is also necessary to develop a “early warning” capacity to rapidly detect any human cases of zoonotic infections. This means Strengthen syndromic surveillance systems, which track clusters of suspected symptoms in real time across the world, and integrate artificial intelligence systems to detect anomalous signals in the “background noise” of seasonal diseases.
A concrete example are the so-called “sentinel communities”, high-risk communities (such as farmers or those living in close contact with wild animals) that are monitored closely to detect early pathogen spillovers. In parallel, it is necessary Strengthen diagnostic capabilities globally, with particular attention to low- and middle-income countries, where new viruses frequently emerge.
The real turning point would be the development of what some call “predictive archaeology” of viruses: using mass genomic sequencing and machine learning algorithms to map the entire “virosphere,” the world of viruses, and predict their future evolution. By knowing in advance which mutations might make a virus more transmissible or pathogenic, we could develop vaccines and “pan-virus” therapies that can neutralize entire families of pathogens before they even emerge. In short? There would be no next pandemic. Ever. We would never give it time.
Next pandemic, strengthen the front line
Even with the best early warning systems, we will never be able to eliminate the risk of new zoonoses. For this reason, it is essential strengthen the resilience of health systems, particularly in the most vulnerable countries. This means investing in people, infrastructure, and supply chains to ensure that every country can quickly identify and contain local outbreaks before they become global emergencies.
A virtuous example in this sense is Africa, that thanks to post-Ebola investments has been able to respond to Covid much more effectively than many expected. Strengthening the first line of defense—local health systems—is perhaps the smartest investment the global community can make to prevent future pandemics.
One Health, One World
The most important lesson that the Covid taught us is that human, animal and environmental health are intrinsically interconnected. We can no longer afford to consider them as watertight compartments. Every pressure we put on ecosystems, from deforestation to intensive agriculture, increases the risk of zoonoses. Likewise, Unhealthy living conditions and inequalities in access to healthcare create fertile ground for the spread of epidemics.
Preventing the next pandemic, therefore, is not just a matter of surveillance and science, but requires a profound rethinking of our relationship with the planet and with other living beings. It requires fully embracing the “One Health” approach, which sees health as an inseparable continuum between people, animals, plants and their shared environment.
This means promoting sustainable agricultural practices that minimize contact between wildlife and livestock, preserve natural habitats which act as a "buffer" against pathogens, improve biosecurity standards in livestock farming and in wet markets. But it also means combat socio-economic inequalities and guarantee universal access to quality health services, because no one is safe until we all are.
Next pandemic? No, the future is safer. If we want.
The shadow of the next pandemic, perhaps caused by avian influenza or another as-yet unknown pathogen, looms large on the horizon. But we are not condemned to suffer it helplessly. We have the tools, knowledge and technologies to prevent it, or in the worst case drastically mitigate its impact. What we often lack is the political will and the investments needed to move from reaction to prevention.
The Covid pandemic has laid bare like never before the fragilities and interconnections of our globalized world. It has made us understand that no country can face threats that know no borders alone. It has reminded us that health is not a luxury, but a fundamental right and a global public good that requires cooperation and solidarity between nations.
Perhaps if we learn from these lessons, we can not only prevent the next pandemic, but build a healthier, more just, and more resilient world for all. A world where the health of every living being is seen as intimately connected to that of others and the entire planet. The road is full of obstacles, but the direction is clear.
And the future, despite the threats that loom, is still to be written.
