In these years marked by the wounds still open from COVID-19, an alarming reality emerges from global statistics. Excess mortality, a key public health indicator, suggests a broader and deeper health crisis that extends far beyond the immediate impact of the pandemic.
In an underappreciated study in Nature (I link it here) there are data that dramatically show the global health crisis. Excess mortality from 2020 to 2022 has far exceeded that caused directly by COVID-19.
A situation that raises urgent questions about global health and the health policies adopted.
Statistical analysis: comparison with the past
Recap: How is excess mortality calculated? - actuaries and scientists adjust the data for age and other factors, and then calculate expected mortality based on trends from the previous period. In this case, the comparison with the reference period of the pre-pandemic years (2015-2019) revealed a truly significant increase in global deaths.
What done boss has. As far as the Covid may seem like a "huge" moment in the human health story, it is not the first. And it didn't come from the sky, it could have been prevented and we could have contained some of the subsequent effects (including the collapse of cardiac screening, just to name one of the possible causes that I don't know).
The most recent example of peak excess mortality dates back to, say, to the 60s. And he was caused by the famine in communist China. Why do I say this? Just a sad reminder of the possible consequences of a large-scale health crisis. A historical event which, be careful, must also help us understand the current situation, to highlight the need for immediate and targeted action, starting from the indicators. Here, I will extract only three.
Situation in the UK: Cardiovascular crisis
In 2022, the UK has seen over 39.000 premature deaths due to cardiovascular conditions, the highest number since 2008. This data, part of the larger global picture of excess mortality, highlights a deterioration in public health and an evolving crisis.
The data on excess mortality in the USA? Even more alarming
In the United States, excess mortality for 2020-2023 represents 12% of all deaths, with over 1,2 million people affected. These most recent numbers indicate a health crisis of large proportions, which requires attention and effective interventions.
And in Europe? A large leopard spot
As regards European countries, a premise is needed: in 16 countries of the Union there is no peak in excess mortality. Among the other 9, Germany recorded the most disastrous toll with 257.016 excess deaths between 2020 and 2022. Closely followed are Italy with 251.911 additional deaths, France (159.000) and Spain (156.000 ).
For other data you can consult these statistics from Our World in Data (they are interactive, you can change and compare countries if you want).
Excess mortality, an in-depth analysis is needed
These statistics, while alarming, require detailed analysis and a coordinated global response. It is essential to investigate the causes of this increase in excess deaths and address shortcomings in healthcare systems.
The pandemic has highlighted many problems, but the underlying challenges require continued commitment and concrete action. Do we have a “global immune deficiency” that makes us more vulnerable to viruses (or heat waves)? Does long Covid cause undetected damage? From hypotheses to certainties we pass through analyses.
Everything else is conspiracy theory, useful only to those who want to hide their responsibilities behind the screen of defense against bizarre accusations.
