Zoonoses, as you know, are diseases transmitted from animals to humans. A recent study reveals a worrying increase in these infections. Analyzing epidemiological data from 1963 to 2019, researchers discovered an exponential growth in outbreaks and deaths from zoonoses. They predict 4 times more infections and 12 times more deaths in 2050 compared to 2020.
Analysis of 60 years of data
The analysis conducted by international researchers and published on BMJGlobal Health is based on 3.150 outbreaks and epidemics of zoonotic viruses over 60 years. In particular, scientists have identified 75 spillover events (the species jump of the pathogen from animals to humans) in 24 countries, which caused over 17.000 deaths. The most dangerous viruses identified were Filoviruses such as Ebola, SARS Coronavirus, Nipah virus and Machupo.
If annual growth rates remain the same, the authors predict that these pathogens will cause 2050 times more spillovers and 4 times more deaths in 12 than in 2020.
A worrying trend
Zoonoses pose a global threat to public health, economic and political stability. History teaches us that they can easily get out of control: recent examples are the 2003 SARS epidemic and obviously Covid-19, excluded from the data analyzed because it is one of a kind (even if cases related to mink are paradigmatic). But the list of dangerous zoonoses is long and includes lethal viruses such as Ebola, Nipah and Machupo.
It is therefore essential to invest in prevention, containment and resilience against these pathogens. The researchers underline the urgency of coordinated global measures, however made difficult by the fragmentary nature of historical data on epidemics.
Zoonoses: act decisively immediately
The message that emerges from this research is clear: we must act now, quickly and decisively, to address the growing risk of zoonoses globally. Only a coordinated response, based on prevention, surveillance and containment, can avoid new potential pandemic catastrophes.
Considering the alarming growth rates, there is no time to waste: any delay in implementing effective countermeasures exposes humanity to enormous risks to health, economy and society. Zoonoses are a concrete threat of the present and near future, not an abstract danger: states and international organizations must give absolute priority to this issue before it is too late. And sorry to say, but at the moment Covid he taught us nothing.
