Greenland is like the thermometer of the planet, a gigantic accumulation of ice that could decide our climate future. At the moment, to put it briefly, it is losing over 300 billion cubic meters of ice per year, and the situation is critical. But will it always be? Is it irreversible? New research published in Nature says no. But it depends on us.
Greenland between hope and apocalypse: post-2100 scenarios
There is an ice giant, Greenland, which has a power: that of raising sea levels by seven metres. Now, imagine what would happen if this giant began to melt uncontrollably. In other words: what happens if we fail to limit global warming to 1,5°C, as seems increasingly likely? After all, a shocking United Nations report says that within 70 years we will reach 2.8° C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels.
A team of researchers led by Nils Bochow ofArctic University in Norway has explored this apocalyptic scenario and, fortunately, also offers us a glimmer of hope.
All on ice
To try to understand Greenland's future, scientists use advanced computer models that divide the ice sheet into tens of thousands of 3D segments. These models apply the physical laws of ice movement to calculate how each segment will change over time, taking into account factors such as climate change, ice thickness and internal ice temperature.
It's like playing a very complicated video game, but with real and dramatic consequences.
Of course, as advanced as these models have become, there is still room for uncertainty. For example, it is difficult to predict how ice will move over bedrock or what its internal temperature will be. Not to mention the possible variations in atmospheric and oceanic currents over the course of thousands or (tens of thousands) of years. In other words, predicting the distant future is like looking into a very, very opaque crystal ball. And the next 70 years?
Good and bad news
If temperatures peak at 2°C and stay there, models predict a significant collapse of the ice sheet after several millennia. However, if we can seriously mitigate warming after 2100, there is a chance for recovery. For example, if temperatures stabilize by 2200 to less than 1,5°C of warming, the ice sheet will remain smaller than it is now, but stable. This is where optimism comes in: it's never too late to correct our mistakes, at least to a certain extent.
Some won't care. When it comes to climate change, there is always a jumble of voices ranging from the sceptical, the hostile, the selfish, the ignorant and the derisive. From "nothing is true" to "who cares, I won't be there anyway". Research shows us that we have a window of opportunity. If we act now, we can avoid the worst and perhaps even reverse some of the current trends. But if we delay too much, if we allow temperatures to remain high for too long, then ice sheet collapse and significant sea level rise become inevitable. We are already suffering consequences. Our children, our grandchildren would be overwhelmed.
