The goal of powering the world with renewable energy will require a lot of raw material, but according to a recent analysis published in Cell (I link it to you here) we have a much larger margin than expected for aluminum, steel and rare earths.
In 2015, as you know, world leaders they set a goal: Keep global temperature rise below 1,5°C. Apparently the goal for the next 10 at least it more than failed, but with a view to a lasting intervention it will still be necessary to build many new infrastructures. And the latest research has (at least on this) encouraging conclusions: the world has enough raw material to completely power the planet with a global network of renewable energy.
Even more important news and a litmus test to distinguish between those who will read this article and those who will only comment on the title on social media: the extraction and processing of these materials will not produce enough emissions to exceed international climate objectives. However, there are some "buts": I'll tell you now.
Plenty, but let's go slow
Despite the abundance of materials needed to build renewable energy infrastructure, extraction and processing can present major challenges. If not addressed responsibly, these activities could cause environmental damage or violate human rights. To get a clearer picture of the situation, the researchers examined 17 key materials needed to generate low-emission electricity. They calculated the amount of each of these materials needed to build cleaner infrastructure and compared it to estimates of the resources available in our geological reserves.
The construction of renewable infrastructure requires a variety of materials, such as aluminum, concrete and steel, but also more specific elements. For example, solar panels need polysilicon. Wind turbines need glass fiber for the blades and rare earth metals for engines. Nearly 2050 billion tonnes of steel and 2 billion tonnes of concrete may be needed for energy infrastructure by 1,3.
To meet this demand, the production of rare earth metals such as dysprosium e neodymium (used in wind turbine magnets) is expected to increase four-fold in the coming decades. Polysilicon will also be snapped up, with the global market predicting a 150% increase by 2050.
Will we make it or not?
The good news, as mentioned, is that the environmental "disadvantages" of extracting the raw material, while significant, are lower than a single year's emissions of fossil fuels. Seaver Wang , co-director of the Breakthrough Institute's climate and energy team and one of the authors of the study, reiterates this several times. In exchange for this extra "year of pollution" we would have everything we need to power the entire planet with clean energy.
This study, however, focuses only on technologies that generate electricity. It does not include all the materials needed to store and use electricity, such as batteries for electric vehicles or grid storage. The demand for battery materials will increase exponentially by 2050, and the production of graphite, Lithium e cobalt it will need to increase more than 450% from 2018 levels to meet projected demand for electric cars and grid storage.
The challenge, however, will be to get all this raw material out of the ground
Secondo Demetrios Papathanasiou, global director for energy and extractives at the World Bank, there is an underestimation of the situation of the mining sector. The need to extract an additional 700 million tonnes of copper over the next three decades to meet climate goals presents significant challenges.
Mining can cause environmental damage, such as forcing indigenous people off their lands. It may also be associated with unfair working conditions or exploitation. The problem is to find sustainable solutions to obtain the materials needed to build a cleaner future without destroying people or environments in the process.
In summary: let's not worry about the availability of resources: the resources are there. Rather, we need to worry (and do it quickly) about our ability to source this raw material with sustainable solutions. Otherwise, the transition to renewable energy will be a long black trail.
