The specter of a question wanders the planet, a question that haunts both fossil fuel nostalgics and electric revolution enthusiasts. And the question is: with climate breakdowns and the energy crisis, how will the electricity grid manage all the vehicles that are on the way?
Some, among the EU, UK and USA, are also wondering: how are they going to ban the sale of cars with combustion engines, if they do not guarantee electric cars to be able to circulate? In California and the EU, for example, the deadline is 2035. In the UK even earlier, 2030.
We will overload an already collapsing power grid. Is that so?
True: more electric cars connected to the grid will increase the demand for energy over time, and this comes with risks. We will need a stronger network and smarter charging habits.
But there is no cause for alarm: if we plan well there will be a lot of electricity to circulate. Indeed, there will be more, and we will have a stronger global power grid than ever. For three reasons.
First: electric vehicles are not that energy intensive (boom)
Let's start from California, probably the place in the world where more electric cars are concentrated in (relatively) little space. At the moment, during peak hours they represent only 0,4% of all energy consumption. When an estimated 2030 million electric cars, trucks and vans are around in 5,6, all those vehicles would represent only 4% of peak loads on the network (even though it constitutes more than 20% of the total number of vehicles in circulation).
In the EU, if anything, the urgency is greater (but the matter does not change): Even if electric vehicles today represent only 1,5% of the 326 million total European car fleet, the share it will grow to 65 million vehicles by 2030 and double to 130 million vehicles by 2035.
There is certainly not a major problem now, and there certainly will not be on the eve of the ban on the sale of fossil vehicles.
This, as mentioned, does not mean that we should not prepare. The Rocky Mountain Institute, a sustainability research group, predicts that total energy demand in the US will increase 1% to 2% per year as a result of electric car adoption.
A predictable, predictable, essentially manageable growth. The challenge for the network is not to hold up to the electric car: it is to modernize, perhaps moving towards renewables.
This too can be planned, or rather: planned. A 2020 study Brattle Group estimates 20 million light electric vehicles on US roads by 2030. To strengthen the network, storage and distribution systems need between 45 and 75 billion dollars. Don't worry people, dear politicians. Think about investing well, rather.
Second, electric vehicles are extraordinarily flexible
It is not a freezer (which must always be kept on): an electric car could stand still for hours without being used. This has enormous differences and consequences. Moving recharging to the most advantageous times for the network, or establishing smart calendars even on a local basis, can significantly reduce peaks and “duck necks”, even when energy demand will go up a lot.
As we strengthen it, we can make better use of the current network as well. If we continue to reload at will, it will take much greater economic effort. If we coordinate the network, systems and vehicles to recharge when it is most useful, we will completely change the scenario.
For example by recharging during the day (a recent study on the electric vehicle ecosystem of 2035 points this out very well). Encouraging people to charge during the day could save billions on energy storage investments. Increasing solar production will require a lot of batteries to store electricity and use it at night, so we could help by reducing this need.
Third, electric vehicles will ultimately support the grid
Some experts envision a future where electric vehicles can even strengthen the electric grid when used intelligently. Vehicle-to-grid technology, or V2G, would transform connected electric cars into a distributed battery system that would help utilities store electricity for emergencies or periods of excessive demand.
It is a distant future, but the future slowly arrives. Car manufacturers go around it (The truck Ford F-150 Lightning, for example, it can act as a backup generator and power a home for up to three days). In Italy, Enel X and Nissan have started an interesting experimentation of this technology.
Ultimately, V2G will be key to helping store energy generated by wind and solar and transitioning to clean energy sources. If all cars are electric, the amount of energy storage we will have access to will be enormous.
Other than stories. Once again: let's get it inside.
