Two years ago a shocking relationship on the shocking climate he told us that we would have to drastically reduce emissions by 2030. Otherwise we would have crossed the global warming threshold by 1,5 degrees Celsius.
Apparently the thing has already gotten worse since then, and exactly a year ago I anticipated it in this post. There is a strong possibility that the world will reach that global warming threshold much sooner than we thought.
Le new prospectives from the World Meteorological Organization found that average temperatures are expected to be at least 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels (a threshold we first crossed in 2015) every year from 2020 to 2024.
It adds that there is a 20% chance that one of the next five years on Earth will average 1,5°C of global warming, with the probability continuing to increase.
Global warming: are we out of time?
The forecast, which is based on models from climate prediction centers around the world, shows the urgent need for a transformative global climate policy. If we still want to limit global warming below the 2 degrees Celsius target outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement the right time was yesterday, but today is better than ever.
The threshold of 1,5 degrees Celsius (c 1 5) global warming is also outlined in the Paris Agreement. And if exceeding it for just one year doesn't mean we still couldn't reach that goal, on average, that's certainly not a good sign. Almost a surrender with respect to the fight against pollution, certainly a bad blow for the general fight against climate change.
Previous studies show that the last decade has been the warmest on record. The effect? Last year was the second warmest year in recorded history. Consequences of global warming can also lead to a permanent change in the world climate.
“Irreversible climate disruption is proceeding as scientists have long predicted,” says Peter Kalmus, climatologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
We are in the process of losing Earth as we once knew it.
Peter Kalmus
This global warming trend is likely to continue. The new report predicts that almost all regions of Earth will likely be warmer than in the recent past in the next five years.
Of course, it does not take into account the reduction in global emissions resulting from the covida-19 pandemic, but the drop still seems to be short-lived.
Some parts of the Earth will continue to warm more rapidly than others. The Arctic, which has seen ice melt in recent years and is currently experiencing wildfires and a hellish heat wave, is warming twice as fast as the global average.
Global warming: the plagues of the climate
Global warming could have terrifying effects right in the Arctic, thawing permafrost and unleashing large storms that pose a huge risk to communities.
Crossing the average 1,5 degrees Celsius threshold permanently would introduce catastrophic storms, droughts and heat waves.
It would threaten access to food and water and could create conditions for war and economic instability. And, of course, the poor, especially in the Global South, will suffer the worst consequences. Simply put, this is a fucking emergency.
How did we get into this state?
Getting to this point was not inevitable: it was the result of political leaders' refusal to act despite the endless warnings of climate scientists.
Coal, oil and gas do not burn themselves. Their continued use is the result of active decision-making, led by inertia-bound institutions whose takeover depends on maintaining a now unsustainable status quo.
But this also means that it is not too late to change course on global warming.
World leaders could still choose to implement a Green New Deal, stop fossil fuel production, reduce emissions in every sector of the economy. Above all, do what we can to ensure that communities (especially the most vulnerable) can adapt to the changing climate.
