Have you ever argued with a conspiracy theorist? Have you noticed that light in their eyes? That tone of someone who is doing you a huge favor, revealing to you “the truth” that you, poor naive people, have not yet grasped? Of course you have noticed. That confidence is their distinctive trait, their superpower. For years we have wondered why people dive headfirst into theories that, let's face it, are held together by the spit and strings pulled by the usual suspects (who you never know who they are, but they are there). Some said it was narcissism, some a thirst for uniqueness. And what if it was something much more… banal?
A fresh study suggests that the main driver of clichéd “conspiracy theorists” is not the desire to feel like a needle in a haystack, but a simple, gigantic, exaggerated dose of overconfidence. That self-confidence that makes you believe you are smarter than others, even when the facts prove you wrong. And the best part? They really think that most people, including you, have it all figured out and are simply not saying it because they are less courageous.
Overconfidence, this unknown (or perhaps too well-known) thing
Let's face it, a little security is good. But when security turns into an armor impenetrable to any evidence to the contrary, well, then we have a problem. The research I'm talking about, conducted by people who know about human minds, like Professor Gordon Pennycook, Jabin Binnendyk e David G.Rand (the latter to MIT), And published in the magazine Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, goes straight to the heart of the matter: overconfidence. Excess security. Conceit, we would have said some time ago.
These researchers, mainly from Cornell University, they examined a large sample of American adults. They didn't ask them to solve complex equations (too easy for a conspiracy theorist to feel like a genius there, right?) but they subjected them to tests in which performance effective e perception of performance, two very different things, were unconnected. Imagine having to “guess” what’s in an image so blurry that you might see a unicorn or a grocery list. Your confidence in saying “It’s a unicorn!” says more about you than the unicorn itself.
This group of people is really out of touch with reality. In many cases, they believe something that very few people agree with. They have no idea how far they are from common sense.
Here, the study suggests that those who willingly fall for theories that are not exactly… canonical (from the death of Lady Diana to dinosaurs that never existed, passing through for the flat earth), tends to feel smarter and clearer than the facts (or the inability to distinguish a spot from a blurry unicorn) would suggest. In short, their certainty does not come from having analyzed the situation better, but from a somewhat excessive belief in their own abilities.
Surprise: Conspiracy theorists think you are “awakened” too, but cowards
And here comes the twist, the one that makes the whole thing not only frustrating but also a little comical, if it weren't for the real-world consequences. Not only are these guys absolutely convinced they've figured it all out, but they're also convinced that most others think exactly the same way they do. Think about it: they believe they are the vanguard of a thought that, secretly, everyone (or almost everyone) shares.
It's not that they feel like the only warriors of truth against the system, no. They feel like the mouthpiece of a truth that, in their parallel world of “encrypted” chats (laughing) and videos on alternative platforms, has already become common sense. It is a distortion of social perception that leaves you speechless. They are on the edge, in fact, are the limit, but they are seen in the center of the square with a cheering crowd around.
This, among other things, makes arguing with them a near-impossible task. If conspiracy theorists think that you, deep down, know very well that governments are hiding the existence of aliens (just to give a random example, understand me) and simply do not admit it out of fear, convenience or who knows what, every attempt of yours to present data, logic or simple common sense will be seen as further confirmation that you are playing their game, only you are on the side of the "sleepers" for pretend. Understanding this mechanism is a fundamental step for those who study the psychology of false beliefs.
“I know it all” is not the courage to think, it is a closed mind
Now, let’s get something straight. Questioning power, asking for explanations, not passively accepting everything we are told, is not wrong. In fact, history is full of examples in which official “truths” have been revealed to be partial, incomplete or totally false. Thinking for yourself is a virtue, if done well..
The problem arises when “thinking for yourself” turns into a dogmatism that mirrors what you are criticizing. When the search for the “hidden truth” becomes an excuse to ignore anything that doesn’t fit into one’s pre-existing mental scheme. When overconfidence doesn’t push for rigorous investigation, but for preconceived certainty.
This research seems to suggest that, for many, it is not even a need of feeling special or unique that drives belief, but a gross distortion of reality that makes them feel intelligent and in line with "common thought" (theirs). It's a sort of cognitive blindness, we could say. And this syndrome, as I mentioned here, is spreading like wildfire online, amplified by echo chambers and algorithms that only show you what you already want to see (or what you think you already know).
Conspiracy theorists, I love you
It is not about mocking the worries or the desire to better understand a complex world. It is about observing with a bit of bitter irony that attitude of arrogance, that light in the eyes of those who are convinced they are doing you a crazy favor by revealing the "secret" that you, in your presumed stupidity or cowardice, have not yet grasped.
They think they've been "awakened" into a zombie world, but maybe, just maybe, they are so certain of being awake that they do not realize they are walking in a sleepwalking state of self-produced and unverified beliefs. And the funniest (and saddest) part is that they are convinced that you, you who are reading these lines, secretly agree with them. That you have that same light in your eyes, only you hide it better.
Because the POWERS THAT ARE paying you! :)
