Space weather is knocking on Earth’s door, and it doesn’t always bring good news. Solar storms, plasma eruptions, cosmic winds loaded with lethal particles: these are phenomena that can knock out satellites, electrical networks and telecommunications on our planet. From today, however, we will be able to count on a "space traffic light" to predict and prevent these dangers coming from the Sun. This is the promise of the PAGER project led by the scientist Yuri Shprits, which has developed a revolutionary algorithm to transform the vagaries of our star into a universal weather report. A system that combines solar observations, satellite data and computer models to tell us, with a simple red-yellow-green code, when a solar storm is likely to hit Earth. A historic breakthrough in protecting us from the potentially catastrophic effects of space weather.
How Space Weather Works
Geomagnetic storms occur when powerful solar flares interact with the Earth's magnetic field. The solar wind carries charged particles that interact with the magnetosphere, further energizing them to create high-energy particles that can be harmful to satellites.
These collisions produce the spectacular auroras visible from Earth, but can also interfere with satellites' electronic systems. In February 2022, SpaceX lost 38 satellites Starlink when a powerful geomagnetic storm dragged them into Earth's atmosphere after launch.
Geomagnetic storms also cause problems on Earth. The electrical currents they generate can overload power plants and cause temporary blackouts, as happened in Quebec in 1989. with a nine-hour break.
An innovative warning system
The PAGER project team has developed an algorithm that can process data from solar telescopes and satellites in Earth orbit. This allows them to predict when a dangerous geomagnetic storm is heading our way and what the consequences might be for space and ground infrastructure.
“It might take an hour or two to calculate what would arrive on Earth and what effects it would have on the circumterrestrial environment, but it would actually take two days for this disturbance to arrive,” he explains. Shrimps.
Since it can take several more days for radiation to build up that is harmful to satellites, the space weather system provides time to prepare. The algorithm is now being tested to see if it is practical.
Space Weather: A Traffic Light for Earth Safety
To make the forecasts easy to understand, the PAGER team created a simple color code like traffic lights. Satellite operators can immediately know whether space conditions are likely to be safe or not.
The Red indicates that they should consider temporarily putting satellites into protective mode or that power grid operators should take preventive measures. The yellow means paying attention to potential effects, while the green indicates that everything is normal.
Space weather forecasts are constantly processed on powerful computers at the German Geoscience Research Center. Shrimps explains that the team has moved towards probabilistic forecasts, since at the moment, with our knowledge, It is virtually impossible to make very precise long-term forecasts of the storm's effects.
The Future of Space Forecasting
Discussions are underway with theEuropean Space Agency (ESA) for a new project that would allow ESA to adopt some of the PAGER models in its operations. The aim is to continue to improve forecasting services and analysis of upcoming space weather events.
“We are trying to use machine learning in many areas and integrate it into this infrastructure. We are also trying to use all the data available in real time and combine it with our predictions so that the measurements can refine our models,” he says. Shrimps.
An upcoming ESA project to monitor the circumterrestrial radiation environment will provide “real-time measurements of the intense radiation in the magnetosphere.” There are also proposals to install radiation detectors on all commercial spacecraft, which would help to get a much more complete picture of what is happening in space. And maybe open the (magnetic) umbrella in good time.
