The odds that aliens exist are much higher than you think. It's not me who says it, but over 1000 scientists interviewed in what is the largest survey ever conducted on the subject. Forget science fiction movies and conspiracy theories: this time we're talking about hard data, rigorous analysis and surprising conclusions that are making the entire scientific community discuss.
What Experts Really Think About Aliens
The new research published in the prestigious journal Nature Astronomy has finally shed light on one of the most fascinating questions ever. 86,6% of astrobiologists surveyed agree that aliens exist, at least in a basic form. And that's not all: scientists from other disciplines are on the same wavelength, with an agreement rate of 88,4%.
These numbers are even more impressive if we consider that only 2% of respondents said they disagreed. The remaining 12% preferred to remain neutral. As he would say Fox mulder: “The truth is out there,” and apparently most scientists are convinced of it. Professor Peter Vickers ofDurham University and his colleagues conducted this study (that I link to you here) interviewing a total of 1055 scientists. A very representative sample.
Not just space microbes
The surprises don't end there. When we talk about "complex" life forms, 67,4% of experts believe that they exist. And what about intelligent aliens? 58,2% of scientists (not people who wear conical hats made of aluminum foil) believes that there are alien civilizations out there.
This data is sobering: we are not talking about simple space bacteria, but potentially advanced life forms. It is as if the scientific community were telling us that the universe could be much more similar to Star Trek than we think.
Scientists tend to think that alien life exists, even in more advanced forms.
Why are scientists so sure that aliens exist?
The question is purely mathematical, of course. It has nothing to do with the Pentagon UAP row, or the drones in the skies of New Jersey (by the way: have you heard about it anymore?). There are over 100 billion galaxies in our universe, each with billions of potentially habitable planets. Even if the odds of life developing were very low—say, one in a billion billion—there would still be a huge chance that it exists somewhere.
Not only that, we have already identified several habitable environments in our solar system. The moons Europe ed Enceladus hide oceans beneath their icy surface, while Mars could host life forms a few kilometers underground.
We have several habitable environments in our solar system, including the underground oceans of the moons Europa and Enceladus.
A truly surprising consensus?
Perhaps we should be surprised not so much by the high consensus rate, as much as the fact that it is not even taller. With so many potentially habitable environments in the universe, even the most skeptical scientists would have to admit that the odds are strongly in favor of the existence of aliens. As geophysicist wrote Edward Bullard in 1975: “It is more prudent to keep quiet, sit on the fence and wait with diplomatic ambiguity for new data.” Perhaps that 12% of neutrals are simply playing it safe.
Space, final frontier
The research tells us something fundamental: we are no longer in the realm of science fiction. Scientists, notoriously cautious and skeptical people, are convinced that we are not alone in the universe. The real question is no longer "if" aliens exist, but when we will find them (come on, Vera Rubin!).
And as we continue to scan the skies for signs, perhaps we should prepare ourselves for the idea that one day, not too far away, we may have to update our history books with the most important “First contact” of the history of humanity. Unless it has already happened, of course. But this is definitely another story.