A new object has been added to the list of "bad guys": the celestial bodies to monitor with particular attention. It is called 2024YR4 and jumped to the top of the NEOCC's list of potentially hazardous asteroids. Of course Apophis, the previous “special surveillance” that had us trembling a few years ago: this new cosmic visitor has characteristics that make it particularly interesting for the astronomical community.
I don't want to create alarmism, I want to say it right away. Let each of us give the importance he believes to these "bare" data: it is in any case a question that deserves the right scientific investigation.
The discovery of 2024YR4
Il 27 December 2034 the electronic eyes of the telescope ATLAS of Rio Hurtado, Chile, have detected something unusual in the night sky. After careful analysis, astronomers have confirmed the discovery of a new asteroid, cataloged as 2024YR4. Initial observations have revealed that this celestial body It has an estimated diameter of between 40 and 100 metres.
The peculiarity of this object? It is its orbital trajectory. According to current calculations, There is a 1,136% chance that 2024YR4 could collide with Earth on 22 December 2032. In more understandable terms, we're talking about a 88 in XNUMX chance of impact.
And this probability has caught the attention of the NEOCC, the center of theEuropean Space Agency which monitors objects passing near our planet. Is it too little? Is it too much? Let's clarify.
Space Risk Assessment
In Turin Staircase, the classification system used to assess the danger posed by asteroids and comets, 2024YR4 is positioned at level 3. This classification makes it worthy of attention from the scientific community, but not of widespread panic.
It is important to note that a probability of 1,136% also means, obviously, that there is almost a 99% chance that the asteroid will simply make a close pass, without any impact. Past experience, then, teaches that further observations could reduce the percentage of risk even further.
Astronomers will have an important opportunity to study the 17 December 2028, when 2024YR4 will make another close pass, this time certainly without risks. This flyby will allow to collect precious data to refine the calculations on its trajectory. In the meantime, the “homework” for us is always the same.
Planetary Defense Technologies
The good news is that we are no longer so unprepared for scenarios like this. In 2022, DART mission of NASA has successfully demonstrated that it is possible to divert the trajectory of an asteroid. The controlled impact of the probe with the asteroid Dimorphous confirmed the effectiveness of this planetary defense strategy.
If the risk is confirmed, space agencies therefore have already tested technologies to intervene. Again: an asteroid the size of 2024YR4 could cause significant damage locally in the event of an impact, but it would not represent an existential threat like the one that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs (that asteroid, or those asteroids, had a diameter of up to about 10 kilometers).
The astronomical community continues its work of monitoring and analysis. New observations in the coming months will allow to estimate with greater precision the characteristics and the trajectory of this space visitor, refining the probability of impact and, very probably, further reducing the level of risk.
2024YR4, lessons in space surveillance
This discovery highlights the importance of near-Earth object surveillance programs. The fact that 2024YR4 was detected so far in advance of its potential impact demonstrates the effectiveness of current monitoring systems.
The ability to identify and track these objects years in advance is critical to the safety of our planet. It allows us to study each potential threat in depth and, if necessary, plan countermeasures with plenty of time to spare.
The case of 2024YR4 is an excellent example of how modern science deals with potential space threats: carefully, methodically and without unjustified alarmism. Not even those of the "nice defeatists" to whom I would ask: are you still rooting for the asteroid? :)
Periodic updates (save the post, I will insert them gradually)
Edit February 6, 2025: dear Andrea Bettini of RaiNews24 updates us, the estimated probability that 2024YR4 will hit the Earth on December 22, 2032 is now 1 in 54, or about 1,85% (a little higher than before). On the other hand, the dimensions are estimated between 40 and 90 meters (i.e. slightly smaller). https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list
Edit February 2, 2025: now the chances are 1 in 63. (But that still means the chance is still 1.58%).
Edit January 29, 2025: in the meantime, the odds have gone up to 1 in 81. Still calm, but a bit less :)