The era of low-cost flights in Europe may be over for good, thanks in part to the EU's recent environmental policies. All in all, this is good for the climate. But many low- and middle-income people who used to travel across the EU will no longer be able to do so, or at least will be able to do so much less often. Yet the same policies will have little or no impact on the use of much more polluting private jets, which typically cover distances served by airlines and trains. This could be a rather unique case of inequity between green deal provisions, and the EU's next legislative mandate would do well to address the issue. Would you like to know more?
Prices rising and demand falling
According to data from the European Commission, last summer Intra-EU airfares were on average between 20% and 30% higher than pre-COVID-19. The main reasons are high consumer demand, rising fuel costs and disrupted supply chains, the latter two at least partly due to the geopolitical turbulence of recent years.
Prices are likely to rise further in the coming years due to three factors.
First, the reform of the emissions trading system (ETS) of the EU, which is at the heart of the “Fit For 55” policy package proposed by the European Commission in summer 2021 and partially adopted in spring 2023. Second, a 'cold case', the reform of the Energy Taxation Directive of 2003, which aims to remove tax exemptions for aircraft kerosene and heavy fuel oil used by the shipping industry. Third, the idea of a fixed minimum price for intra-EU flights, supported by some countries, particularly France.
According to Airlines for Europe, the largest airline association in the EU, the cost for airlines of complying with EU rules will be 13 to 14 times higher in 2030 than in 2019. If these price increases are fully passed on to consumers, demand for low-cost flights will decrease, leading to a reduction in intra-EU air traffic by more than 8% in 2030 and by approximately 12% in 2035, compared to a scenario in which such reforms had not been implemented.
A fair price for the climate, but unfair for people. Is there a meeting point?
Anyone concerned about climate change can breathe a sigh of relief. As mentioned, the increase in ticket prices will reduce the number of air passengers and the frequency of low-cost flights (consequently, flights in general). It is probably inevitable if the EU wants to reach its goal of net zero CO2 emissions within a few decades. In recent years, however, low-cost airlines have allowed low-income people to travel between EU countries, which was previously very rare. In a certain sense, low-cost airlines have democratized travel, allowing the less well-off to build international experiences, or maintain emotional and family ties. Trains, at the moment, they are still incomparable in terms of costs.
One might say that these concerns are minor compared to the climate threat. Airlines with their low cost flights have so far produced a disproportionate amount of CO2 for purposes that, ultimately, do not concern subsistence. However, if the climate threat justifies low-income people not traveling, or at least traveling much less than before, then must also justify the fact that wealthy EU travelers give up private flights, which on average they emit up to 14 times more CO2 per passenger compared to a scheduled flight. If the less well-off will be on foot, the better off will use airlines or, better yet, high-speed trains. No, huh?
Private jets: the black hole of climate regulation
The main problem with the EU's uniform approach to climate policy is that many wealthy jet users will simply remain indifferent to the continuous increases in the price of emission permits. Second a recent study commissioned by Greenpeace to CE Delft, the number of private flights in Europe has passed from just under 120.000 in 2020 to more than half a million in 2022. More than half of these flights are short and medium haul, comparable to the distance between Paris and Marseille (around 750 km), which in the vast majority of cases can reasonably be replaced by alternative means of transport.
The four most important routes for private flights in Europe are, in order, London-Paris (just over two hours by high-speed train), London-Nice (several scheduled flights per day), Paris-Geneva ( just over three hours by high-speed train) and Paris-Nice (many scheduled flights or just over five hours by high-speed train).
End of low cost flights and nothing against private jets, national initiatives to fill the regulatory gap
A group of EU countries, i.e Austria, Netherlands e France, recently wrote to the EU institutions calling for new regulation on the use of private jets (also supported by Ireland e Belgium). The current European Commissioner for Transport has indicated that this will not happen, at least for now. I press reports suggest that the European Commission's approach is to legislate on aviation as a whole, rather than introducing specific rules for private jets.
Some EU countries are trying to fill this regulatory gap at EU level with national measures. France, for example, he argued a ban on private flights (proposed by the left-wing coalition La France Insoumise and supported by the Greens) and a super tax on luxury flights (favored by the centrist government of Emmanuel Macron). As you can see, not just SUVs. In the Netherlands, Amsterdam Schiphol airport in the Netherlands he's planning to limit access to private aircraft. Spainfinally is considering a short-term ban on private flights as part of its plan to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
Goodbye low cost flights, but let it be a fair climate transition for everyone
There is every reason why the next European Commission should pick up the baton of climate leadership from the current one and close the regulatory loophole that private aviation currently enjoys. If we want ambitious and accelerated climate action, everyone, including the richest, should be part of it. We cannot ask sacrifices from some while allowing others to continue with their polluting privileges.
The transition to a net-zero emissions Europe will be a long and difficult journey. Nobody wants to deny it, it's obvious. But for it to also be a fair and equitable path, no one should be excluded from the collective effort. Not even, in fact especially those who have the means to contribute more. Only in this way will we be able to build a sustainable future not only for the planet, but for all its inhabitants. A future in which the right to a clean and stable environment is not a luxury for the few, but a right for everyone.
