Artificial intelligence is advancing at an unprecedented pace, threatening to disrupt not just the world of work, but the entire fabric of our society. With AI and robots capable of replacing most workers, (make no mistake, white collar workers, yours too), we are faced with a fundamental question: can capitalism and the current social contract survive in a world where Is most human labor no longer necessary?
You all know the landscape. Some foresee an era of abundance and liberation, others fear chaos and inequality. Certainly the “post-work” economy will require a radical rethink of everything we take for granted. Is it possible to imagine some scenarios? I'll show you my scattered notes, if you're interested.
The silent revolution
Unlike industrial revolutions of the past, which moved workers from one sector to another, the advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) promises to make most current human work obsolete.
It's not just about automation, it's about total replacement. AIs will not only be able to perform physical tasks better and faster than humans, but will also surpass our cognitive abilities in almost every field. A perspective that raises profound questions about the role of the individual in a society where work is no longer necessary for survival.
Abundance and its price
A world where intelligence and work are cheap it could lead to an era of hyperabundance where goods and services are produced in unprecedented quantities and at very low prices. But this abundance would come at a cost. Without work, many people would not have the means to participate in the economy, leading to a collapse in aggregate demand.
To avoid collapse, a massive redistribution of wealth would be required, perhaps in the form of universal basic income or free public services. But convincing those with economic power to share their profits could prove to be a formidable challenge.
A world without borders, but tailor-made
AI could also redraw the map of global manufacturing. When the cost of robotic labor is the same everywhere, offshoring loses its economic advantage. We may see a wave of deglobalization, with production moving to highly automated local factories.
In a post-work economy shaped by AI, companies with the best AI models may no longer feel the need to specialize in a single industry. In the digital realm, barriers between industries will vanish allowing a single company to offer a wide range of services. You can get legal advice, financial management, personalized music, tailor-made films and TV shows and unique virtual reality experiences, all from a single source. This phenomenon is already starting to manifest itself: tech giants like Amazon, originally a simple online retailer, now produce films and TV series, offer cloud services, develop voice assistants and much more.
But despecialization it won't just affect the digital world. Physical manufacturing companies could also become more flexible and adaptable, focusing more on their means of production and available materials than on a narrow range of final products. Instead of having factories dedicated exclusively to the production of cars, or furniture, or household appliances, we could see “jack of all trades” factories capable of producing practically anything on demand. Do you need a sofa with customized dimensions, shape, color and materials? Simply provide the specifications and AI will control the robots to make it happen, optimizing every aspect of the process to reduce waste and costs. This approach could lead to an explosion of unique, tailor-made products, perfectly tailored to each individual's needs and desires. The era of mass production could give way to an era of mass creation, in which each object is a unique piece made just-in-time, just-for-you.
Brands as new pagan gods, the social contract as a commercial contract
This despecialization and personalization could have profound implications for how we think about brands and consumer loyalty. In a world where any company can produce virtually anything, differentiation will no longer be based on what you do, but how well you do it. Or on how well it connects with the perceived sentimentality of the "users".
The key to success will be having the best AI algorithms, the most flexible factories and the most interesting materials. Companies will compete on quality, speed, efficiency and, above all, on the ability to interpret and satisfy the unique desires of each customer, i.e. citizen. Because the risk (or more simply the framework) is to discover that the new social contract is a commercial contract. Handsome? Mh. Ugly. Eh. It could simply be a consequence.
A new social contract
Perhaps the biggest challenge, as mentioned, will be redefining the social contract in a post-work world. When work is no longer necessary, what will social status be based on? How can we ensure that everyone's basic needs are met? What will the role of government be in an economy dominated by powerful corporate entities?
Finding the answers to these questions will require a profound rethinking of our values and institutions. We will have to build a new balance of power, in which citizens have a say not through their work (perhaps, in a century, not even through voting), but through their role as stakeholders. Obviously we need to understand, build and predict how.
An opportunity for humanity
Despite the challenges, the advent of the post-work economy could also represent a huge opportunity for humanity. Freed from the need to work for a living, we could devote our energies to pursuing passions, knowledge and relationships. We could rediscover the value of things that money can't buy, because time IS NOT money: community, creativity, spirituality.
We could finally realize the dream of a social contract, indeed of a society in which everyone can reach their full potential. Not because he has to, but because he wants to.
A social contract, a journey into the unknown
The post-work economy is uncharted territory, full of dangers and possibilities. A part of us will experience it, our children or perhaps our grandchildren, but we certainly have a role in its realization. Navigating this new world will require wisdom, compassion and imagination.
We will have to be ready to question everything we think we know about work, value and society itself. It will be a difficult journey, but also an exciting one. It is up to us to decide whether this will be an era of abundance and enlightenment or inequality and chaos. The choice we make today will shape the world we leave to our children and our children's children.
Because at the end of this journey there may be not only a new economic system, but a new definition of what it means to be human.
