The delirium of the last few months (conflict in Ukraine, energy crisis in Europe, North Korean missiles on Japan and so on) shows in a plastic way the end of an era. That of a world driven by globalization: we tried, with little loyalty and too much prevention, and things obviously got out of hand.
As we witness the last blows of this old world, hoping they won't resonate with the roar of the atomic bombs, the signs of the next world "order" are already emerging. A multipolar order, which seems to be based on a series of different transversal "blocks", which govern as many parts, physical or economic, of geopolitics. You will tell me that it is still a form of globalization. Yes, it is: but it is "vertical". For confined areas.
The world is splitting into blocks, yes. And these blocks could reshape everything from sustainability to supply chains.
What is meant by "block world"
Some examples? In Latin America a "lithium" block which brings together Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, the four nations that control most of the production of this resource, among the most requested (and complex to manage) in the world.
In the Indo-Pacific the US proposed "Chip 4", an alliance for semiconductors with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The target? Establish supply chains for chips that do not depend on China, and stop Beijing's technological rise. A move evidently necessary for these countries, given the Chinese advance and the possible (next?) Series of sanctions that will hit Western products, with taxes that are expected to be as high as 400%.
Other blocks
In the Middle East, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have joined India and the US to launch "I2U2", a new block to promote innovation. The first meeting the group has concluded with several deals, ranging from building "food parks" in the UAE to solar energy projects in India in order to create more sustainable energy options for the world.
More blocks in formation in Eurasia. While Kazakhstan wants to redesign the flow of physical and digital trade across this vast territory, China has built what is known as the "northern corridor". A corridor connecting Asia and Europe through Russia and Belarus, as part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). And guess where all sorts of tensions have erupted? Exactly.
As the war in Ukraine is making this corridor unstable, Kazakhstan has proposed a "Middle Corridor" (again in the context of the Belt and Road) that passes through Turkey. Blocks that put the US in difficulty, this time, at the moment stopped in a very narrow alley: to dissociate Europe from Russia, but without pushing European companies into the arms of China.
And Africa?
In this great reorganization, the most awaited continent could not be missing, which in the future (according to forecasts) will score great performances. Recently, the African Union (AU) he held its 3rd Integration Day on the theme of deglobalization.
The target? Become self-sufficient and depend as little as possible on the rest of the world. This, if possible, is a gigantic challenge within the challenge.
The great chaos of the near future
With all these new blocs emerging, as mentioned, the world is rapidly moving away from the old era of globalization. The moment is chaotic and dangerous: alliances and corridors that are forming will only lead to greater global fragmentation, generating great shocks for both governments and businesses.
For one thing, many of these exclusive new US-created blocs aim at cutting out traditional allies such as Canada, France or Germany. Instead, they look to the United Kingdom, and to the Indo-Pacific area. What will this attitude bring in the medium term? Will Europe remain "aligned" or will it focus on other interlocutors?
These are just a few questions from a world that is fragmenting into many new faults. Blocs competing to rule the world, however, will have to find ways to coexist.
Until what point? And what will happen when this coexistence becomes difficult?
Answers, these, which hopefully (perhaps) will reach our posterity.
If they already come to us it is a big problem.
