At the end of a real battle, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (better known as Squid) ousted the outgoing president Jair Bolsonaro. It was one of the most significant elections in the history of Latin America, and it will have long-lasting consequences.
For the majority of Brazilians (just over 50%, in fact) Bolsonaro's defeat derives from the repudiation of his policies towards indigenous populations and the environment. Often defined as the "Trump of the tropics" due to his "similarities" with the American tycoon, Bolsonaro has weakened environmental protections against pollution and speculation, ending up encouraging deforestation and exploitation of the Amazon forest.
Although Bolsonaro has not yet admitted defeat (there are fears he will accuse him of fraud) many of Lula's opponents seem to accept the results. According to environmentalists, however, Lula's victory represents an opportunity to reduce deforestation in the Amazon, which has increased rapidly during Bolsonaro's presidency, and to improve Brazil's reputation on climate change. However, it won't be an easy process.
The challenges that Lula will have to face
In fact, Bolsonaro only has two months left in his mandate "for current affairs" (we would say in Italy), but he is trying to push through at least seven bills. Measures that, for example, would allow people to keep the land they took illegally and would make it more difficult to regulate pesticides. Lula's supporters say she's just trying to destroy as much of things as possible before she leaves.
Secondo Suely Araujo, who headed the Brazilian environmental agency Ibama from 2016 to 2018, “there is a dangerous abuse of the law by Congress going on right now.”
We have been fighting against the Bolsonaro government for four years and we are in the final act, but we must be vigilant. They can still violate the rights of indigenous peoples and damage the environment.
Lula also takes office at a time when agribusiness, miners and organized crime in the Amazon have been reinvigorated: in many Amazon regions, local elections have elected pro-agribusiness leaders, and Bolsonaro won majorities in more than half of the Amazon states. This is why Lula's assignment is more like a swamp to be crossed than a field to be plowed.
Starting with the first, complicated task: updating Brazil's climate objectives to bring them back in line with the Paris agreements.
In Paris we will see two “Brazilians”
In his first speech as president-elect on Sunday evening, Lula reiterated his strong support for zero deforestation in the Amazon. “Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis,” he told a crowd of supporters in Sao Paulo, “and will protect all our biomes, especially the Amazon rainforest".
Fulfilling this commitment would likely result in the restoration of cooperation with Norway and Germany on Amazon Fund: Over $3 billion for forest protection frozen by Bolsonaro in 2019. It would also involve reinstating the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation, which includes not only monitoring and law enforcement, but also economic incentives to provide alternatives to deforestation.
The problem is that the Bolsonaro government in transition will be attending the United Nations climate summit, COP27. And it is likely to emphasize the country's low-carbon energy sector, which relies primarily on hydropower. Deflecting from any questions about the deforestation of the Amazon (which makes Brazil one of the top six global carbon emitters). Lula said she will send one of her own unofficial delegation, and this says it all about the current state of confusion.
A record under his belt
In his previous mandate, from 2003 to 2010, Lula boasted the record for the greatest reduction in deforestation. 12 years later, indigenous leaders and environmental groups are calling for a range of actions, from the removal of invaders from Yanomami indigenous lands to the withdrawal of PL 191, a bill that allows mining in indigenous territories.
The Bolsonaro government has implemented a kind of manual to dismantle environmental policy. The first task will be to rebuild, then move forward.
Suely Araujo
As said: it will be very difficult. Lula will have to deal with extreme political division. And with a Brazilian national congress with a strong conservative component (which has links with producers and agribusiness). In his victory speech, Lula talked about how to improve the problem of inequality and how to unite Brazil in a time of political turmoil. He said: “It is not in anyone's interest to live in two separate countries. We cannot continue like this... with a huge wall that divides us into such unequal parts."
He captured the moment perfectly: let's hope that this ideal wall goes down, because the alternative is a civil war.
