Russia will not supply natural gas to European countries without receiving advance payment, and in rubles, for deliveries of Russian gas. The deadline initially scheduled for tomorrow, 31 March 2022, has been vaguely postponed, but the risks for Europe are more than concrete.
This is if you don't have time to look at it in full, the gist of an interview with PBS, European Truth Reports, made in the past few hours by the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Do we have rubles to pay? Do we want to do it or not? What are the possible consequences?
The Kremlin press secretary did not skimp on reasoning, in the verbose but dry style that the Russians display, as usual, in their communications. And on the other hand, the questions were also excellent and precise.
“I'm not sure what will happen if European countries reject this offer,” Peskov said laconically. “So as soon as we have a definitive answer, we will see what can be done. Of course, we will not engage in charity work and we will certainly not send gas to Western Europe for free." Yes.
When asked directly whether Russia will shut off the gas if it is not paid for in rubles, Peskov essentially replied: “No payment, no gas.”
And we?
The reactions are varied and confused, as in the style of the countries of the Union: on the eve of these "final" declarations, Russia's request for pay your gas bills in rubles.
Today, however, a significant signal arrives. At Germany's Mallnow station, the flow of Russian gas along the Yamal-Europa pipeline has fallen to "zero", Reuters reported. And two specific cases have emerged: Italy and Germany.
Italy and Germany at the forefront
It is no coincidence that today there is a direct call between Draghi and Putin. And it is no coincidence that the German Ministry of Economy activates an emergency plan for gas, asking businesses and families to cut consumption in light of a potential worsening of supplies.
The fibrillation of Germany and Italy, fully involved in this problem, is easily explained: 60% of German manufacturing and 70% of Italian manufacturing currently depend on Russian gas. An abrupt stop of supplies is not impossible, but it is unthinkable due to the damage it would cause. Literally, it would expose the two countries to shortages of energy, food and products, with markedly visible effects starting from next summer. Said so, without going around it too much.
The EU's top diplomat believes that Putin will not interrupt gas supplies to Europe in response to sanctions. We will see. Meanwhile, rubles have returned to February 24 levels: someone, in the “great secrecy” of chancelleries and cabinet councils, may have started asking where to get some.
