They are really well hidden (between a pandemic that could perhaps end, and a war that could perhaps begin) but they are there. The reasons for cultivating optimism appear here and there among the technological news, and they show (if we know how to grasp them) that the world is about to experience a period of great rebirth.
Historical phases such as those that are being prepared are not frequent, and do not depend on a single invention in particular. They happen when a series of simultaneous changes trigger a real daily revolution.
Three big reasons for optimism: when did this last happen?
It happened at the beginning of the 20th century: cars, telephone, radio, cinema, airplane, electricity were technologies that were born almost together. It is not their appearance, however, that has produced everything: the changes were born from the conditions that produced their appearance.
They are, that is, advances in three main fields: Information, Production, Materials.
The first triad
I'm not just talking about the "transmission" ofinformation , of the media (which in the 20th century saw the arrival of telephone, radio and TV almost together), but also of the "acquisition" of information that concerns us and the world. Spectroscopy, X-ray crystallography. Precision watches. We suddenly obtained a sea of more data from the world, which increased our understanding of everything and made us improve. For example, they made us build machines best. Systems that made us produce more things in less time. And obviously, also machines to transport things and people (car, plane) or to produce energy. To have materials best contributed: the arrival of chemistry, or of high-strength concrete.
Curiosity: for a very long time man used only a small part of the 92 original elements of the periodic table: to make a car previously practically just 7 were used: wood, rubber, glass, iron, copper, zinc and a little of vanadium. Today, a third of the entire periodic table is used to make a car. To make a computer you need two thirds of it.
1920, the point of no return
It is the year in which, more or less, all these different technologies reached sufficient maturity to literally "explode" all the well-being that had developed up until 2000. If the word "well-being" makes you turn up your nose, enough two facts: in the West the average lifespan has increased by 30 years, and the average wealth per capita has increased by up to 700%
Yes, obviously it wasn't an easy century. He has seen egregious and horrible things alternate. From 1920 onwards there was an economic collapse in 1929, and above all an abominable world war. The fact is that all the advances we know in our life depend on that "trio" that came together in 1920.
And today, where does optimism come from? What is the new "trio" that will make the history of this century?
Mark Twain said that history does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Good, because I hear a refrain that reminds me of the 20s.
And the new “trio” looks a lot like the old one, yes sir. THEtraining, machines, materials. Even today, a large number of technologies are coordinating to mature around these three major sectors almost at the same time.
To upset the sphere ofinformation it will be the maturation of something that we even consider dated: the microprocessor. A tool that forms the basis of artificial intelligence, a great protagonist of the coming years. Once again, both the "transmission" of information (including information content generated by an AI) and the acquisition of information (Big Data, with all that entails) increase enormously.
Leading the way in the sector of machines it will be the maturation of the 3D printer as a new means of production. It will be able to produce complex objects in large quantities, even starting from dust or from components very similar to natural ones. 3D printing will also allow the production of organic elements, such as skin or artificial organs, and will eventually produce part of our food as well. To complete the picture, robots (including anthropomorphic ones, or flying drones) and autonomous vehicles will intervene in the revolution of goods and people.
Let's talk about materials available to build everything. This century will see the affirmation of materials developed and designed directly by us, tailor-made, to satisfy specific needs. The most promising field is that of bioelectronics, which could outperform the revolution brought about by silicon in the last century.
Bonus Track: the Cloud.
To amplify optimism there is the presence, in this century, of an additional protagonist: it is the Cloud. A cloud that (this is an absolute novelty in known history) evolves and self-amplifies. Practically a "fabric" that incorporates all technological developments and at the same time catalyzes them, puts them in synergy, improves them. Something never seen before.
There is a trio in every trio
In a sort of "matryoshka" of innovation, it is easy to understand this rule of the "power of three" by looking inside each technology. Because, looking more closely, every technology explodes when multiple factors mature within it.
An example? The train. Its true explosion was born only when three fundamental elements linked to information (the telegraph), machines (the steam engine) e materials (high strength steel) have matured.
Another example? The iPhone. Its explosion depends on three elements with which Steve Jobs had nothing to do. Once again information (the integrated circuit, year of birth 1959: offers both the microprocessor and the radio), machines (touch and pocket screens, year of birth 1965) to materials (lithium ions, core of batteries, year of birth 1970). Technologies that have matured over years, decades, and then come together and produce a small revolution in the year 2007
The optimism comes from the fact that this rule has occurred with incredible punctuality every time.
Optimism is inevitable when you think that big and small revolutionaries (I mentioned Steve Jobs, which however has the merit of having achieved a convergence) are helped by this "power of trio" in an inevitable way.
Repeat this rule as many times as you want, the result will be identical. Below I provide a very quick overview of characters with the invention for which they are remembered and the year of birth of a "trio" of factors that were decisive for his invention.
Believe me, the list could never end.
And how long will it take for this positive 'explosion'?
Often, in modern history, there are small jumps of 20 or 10 years from the invention of a new technology to its actual mass use. It is the most widespread average.
Since the invention ofcars (as Karl Benz said, 1886) 20 years passed before the Ford T was the first car “for everyone” (1908). Another 20 years for cars to reach 5% diffusion, then just 10 years to reach 20%. Another 20 years and everyone would have had a car.
Let's talk about the radio? About 10 years passed from Heinrich Hertz's demonstration of the existence of radio waves to Marconi's invention. Another 20 years to arrive at the first broadcast service (in Argentina, 1920).
Let's talk about PC? Less than 1937 years pass from the first electronic computer (20) to the first commercial computer (Univac, 1951). It then takes another 20 years for the first Personal Computer.
Are we taking longer? Because?
This scheme could also work for technologies that today, but on some there are some delays or some advances, due to the ever greater unpredictability (and therefore to the variables that each of the factors leads to each invention).
La 3d printing, for example, originated in 1984 with the invention of stereolithography. After 20 years the first valid machines entered the industrial markets: another 20 years and they should have reached (in 2024) 10% of the machine tool market. In my opinion we are a little behind the schedule.
Le Modern electric cars? From the first lithium-ion batteries (Tesla Roadster, 2008) to the point where 5% of all cars in the world will be battery-powered, we could hit the 20-year goal.
In principle, however, these schemes could help us at least to understand more or less when the great transformative technologies of our century will become mass-market. And above all they could train our optimism, making us understand that for almost all of them it is never a question of "if", but of "when".
Of course, this time too it won't be plain sailing
Of course, due to the tendencies of human nature, it would be unrealistic to assume that the next century will be free of upheaval, political conflict and even (unfortunately) wars.
However, these huge technological advances will eventually show up in all three primary social metrics: more wealth per capita, more health and well-being, more convenience and free time to enjoy life.
