The coronavirus epidemic will lead to “a global recession of a magnitude never experienced before”, but will ultimately allow humanity to restore its values. This is the summary of megatrend expert Li Edelkoort's coronavirus predictions.
Born in Holland in 1950, Edelkoort is considered one of the most influential trendsetters in the world, Advises consumer companies and brands around the world. In 2015 he stated “the end of fashion as we know it”, saying the industry has become “a ridiculous and pathetic travesty of what it used to be.”
"The virus,” says Edelkoort, “will have a profound cultural and economic impact. People will have to get used to living with fewer possessions and traveling less, as the virus disrupts global supply chains and transportation networks.”
A consumption quarantine
“It seems we are massively entering a consumer quarantine where we will learn how to be happy in just a simple dress, rediscovering old favorite clothes we own, reading a forgotten book and dancing in the storm to appreciate the beauty of life”Edelkoort said.
“Recent air images over China have shown how two months without mass production have cleared the skies and allowed people to breathe again”, he said, referring to the fact that carbon emissions and pollution from China's industry have declined since the virus first hit the country. “This means that the virus, in its severity and danger, will show how slowing and degrowth can produce a better environment that will certainly be visible on a large scale.”
I hope for a better system
“And this is where I hope: another better system to be built with greater respect for work and human conditions.” Edelkoort, who runs the New York forecasting agency Edelkoort inc , is currently in South Africa, in “self-imposed quarantine”.
Let's do like Italy
Edelkoort said other countries should follow Italy's example. “Anyone still planning public events in the coming months should put them aside and find innovative ways to communicate and convey information differently,” he said.
“Unfortunately, there is no immediate cure in this disaster. We will have to collect the residue and reinvent everything from scratch once the virus is under control.”
The impact of the coronavirus
Predictions on the coronavirus and its impact: it will be layered and complex, moving from disbelief and denial to the progressive perception of the impact on our lives. There are many scenarios, they can also include self-isolation solutions. It's hard to understand the math with numbers jumping around so quickly over short periods of time, so the disbelief continues. For now only China, Korea and Italy have introduced measures that other countries will have to follow.
Anyone who still plans public events in the coming months must stop organizing and find innovative ways to communicate and convey information differently.
I think we should be very grateful for the virus because it could be why we survive as a species
As a prime target of this virus, due to my old age and respiratory illnesses, I am aware of the immediate dangers and threats this poses to people around the world. And I am very sad for the families of people who have already lost their lives to this new disease. Hopefully they did not die in vain as the world will strive to resurrect human dignity and survival.
Coronavirus predictions: how society will change
The impact of the epidemic will force us to slow down, refuse to take planes, work from our homes, entertain only among friends or relatives, learning to become self-sufficient and aware. Suddenly fashion shows seem bizarre and out of place, travel adverts seem invasive and ridiculous, thoughts of future plans are vague and inconclusive: will it matter? Every new day we question every system we know from birth and are forced to consider its possible demise.
For several years we have understood that to survive as a species and to keep the planet moving forward, we must make draconian changes to the way we live, travel, consume and entertain. We cannot continue to produce the many goods and choices we are used to. The debilitating mass of information about nothingness has numbed our culture. There is a growing awareness among younger generations that owning and hoarding clothes and cars are no longer even attractive.
Somehow the human psyche is resistant and deludes itself that things will dissolve on their own, wasting time while pretending nothing happened. The sudden interruption of everything by the virus takes away decision-making power and slows things down: we are no longer used to doing things without rushing. Skills and creativity will become the highest resources.
The chain reaction starting from the Chinese economy
It's not easy to make predictions about the coronavirus because not many people understand what is happening to our world and economy right now. In some companies, up to 90% of all products are made in China from petroleum-derived substances such as plastic and polyester. Soon we will see empty shelves of shoes, phones, clothes and even toothpaste. We will have a shortage of medical supplies and see the endless production of ugly souvenirs and useless bags stop.
China's endless exports of synthetic saris to India and plastic household items to Africa, which have severely disrupted local economies and created a lot of unemployment (and pollution) over the years, may even stop, likely bringing new local manufacturing opportunities.
We will be able to have a blank page for a fresh start as many businesses and money will be wiped out in the slowdown process. The redirect and reboot will require a lot of understanding and audacity to build a new economy with other values and ways of managing manufacturing, transportation, distribution and retail.
The postponement of the Salone del Mobile, the Venice Architecture Biennale, the Hadj, papal prayers, perhaps the Olympic Games and more, are all economic disasters in their own right; their accumulation will prevent the circulation of money. All sectors will be rocked, especially luxury brands, airlines, hospitality, electronics and imported food.
What will happen in the coming months
Coronavirus predictions? We will see the further closure of society, country by country. The warmer Southern Hemisphere appears to be more protected, but we don't know that for sure yet. We will have to deal with less news, fewer products, fewer pop-ups. We will have to abandon many of our habits as if they were drugs. If we are wise, which unfortunately we now know we are not, we will start again with new rules, allowing countries to return to their specific know-how and qualities.
What things can we learn from this disaster? A regulated shutdown of production facilities for two months of the year, as well as collective creative studios that would produce ideas for several brands simultaneously, resulting in an economy of scale with a much lighter environmental impact.
