I told you. The establishment of the “Space Force” American (followed closely by China) marked the beginning of a new era in global political-military skirmishes. Now space is the next theater of confrontation. It is not surprising, therefore, that after the recent tension generated by the spy balloons Chinese forces, a new alarm emerges: Russia's development of anti-satellite capabilities. This announcement only confirms the inevitable trend towards the militarization of Earth orbit. New global security problems and questions about the ethics of this... What to call it? Celestial arms race.
The space arms race
Official intelligence confirmation regarding Russian anti-satellite capabilities was provided just yesterday by the White House. The revelation, which followed the worrying statement from the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, the Republican Mike Turner, sparked a fierce debate in Congress. John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, sought to allay concerns by saying that while Russia's development of such capabilities is a cause for concern, it does not represent an already deployed "active danger" nor an immediate security threat.
So what are we talking about in this crucial US election year? This information was disclosed in an already tense political context, with mutual accusations among members of Congress regarding the motivations behind the disclosure of the information and the shadow of the war in Ukraine forming the backdrop. Some interpreted the act as an attempt to justify further funding for Ukraine (I wouldn't be surprised), others have defended the choice to make this intelligence activity public, underlining the seriousness of the threat posed by Russian anti-satellite capabilities.
Obviously, there is no question of making the threat transparent, nor of clarifying its real or presumed extent. The White House and the CIA have expressed concerns about declassification related to this threat, emphasizing the importance of a private and targeted approach in handling sensitive information. The question, therefore, is destined to remain mysterious at least as much as the anthrax letters and the test tubes shaken by Colin Powell. Jokes aside: since we can't get to the bottom of the origins, let's at least try to understand the trajectory of this event.
Anti-satellite weapon: the international response
The potential activation of anti-satellite weapons by Russia would not only threaten the security of US and allied satellites, critical for navigation, communication and Earth observation, but would also pose significant risks to the global security and defense architecture . The destruction of a satellite, in fact, could generate space debris capable of compromising other satellites and vital infrastructure for years, if not decades.
Faced with this escalation, the international community finds itself having to navigate uncertain waters. “Space diplomacy”, still in an embryonic phase, will have to face challenges never seen before, trying to establish rules and agreements that prevent a dangerous arms race in orbit. At the same time, the USA – China – Russia and their respective allies will have to carefully evaluate their defense and deterrence strategies, balancing the need to protect their space assets with the urgency of maintaining a safe and peaceful outer space. It will be like this?
It's space warfare, baby.
The militarization of space, which my mind continues to consider paradoxical (but I have to get used to it), raises important ethical questions. The use of space, according to international treaties, should be limited to peaceful purposes, right? Well. That is, bad: military escalation in that domain threatens to violate this fundamental principle. Furthermore, the competition for space supremacy risks diverting valuable resources from scientific and exploration missions that could benefit humanity as a whole.
If confirmed, the existence of Russian anti-satellite technologies represents a critical moment in the history of the militarization of space. The management of this new conflict front will define the future of global security, and beyond. I feel like saying that it will also have a strong impact on the fate of space exploration and technological progress.
