We are preparing to end a 2023 that has shown a lot of fibrillation in global power dynamics, and among the signs of this year the important rapprochement between Russia and China is definitely noteworthy.
The nations led by Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are strengthening their ties, driven by a common goal: to counter the supremacy of the United States. This growing cooperation, including joint military exercises and the development of advanced weapons, marks a potential turning point in modern military history.
The historical context of military competition
It's not a mystery. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 left the United States as the world's sole military superpower, with forces deployed around the globe in defense of allies and for deterrence.
Now the situation could undergo a dramatic change. Not for the dynamics of a conflict, the Ukrainian one, which evolves into attrition, but for the military rapprochement between Russia and China. Undoubtedly "favored" in some way also by the strategic choices of the USA and Europe and combined with the growing conflicting geopolitical interests, this "reinforced" axis aims to redefine the world order. Will he succeed?
The Russia-China cooperation strategy
Recent moves by Russia and China indicate a progressive synchronization of their military resources. Joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan. The transfer of submarine technologies towards the east. Putin's statements on cooperation in development of high-tech weapons. All elements that underline this trend.
If that wasn't enough, let's point out (more than anything else, let's remember) the sale of Su-25 jets, MI-17 helicopters and S-400 air defense systems from Russia to China. No further evidence is needed of their intention to intensify military collaboration.
What does the strengthening of the Russia-China axis imply?
The possibility of a full-fledged military alliance between Russia and China represents an unprecedented challenge for the West. During the Cold War, the Pentagon planned to be able to fight one major war and two minor wars simultaneously.
Now, with the changed geopolitical reality, the United States must reconsider its defense strategy. We need to work on the NATO and European Union fronts if necessary a simultaneous conflict with Russia and China.
The United States' global alliances play a critical role in its ability to counter the threat posed by rival superpowers. In particular, European countries urgently need to strengthen their military capacity. This is why burden-sharing among European allies is crucial to addressing the consequences of the Russia-China geopolitical "coordination" highlighted by situation in Ukraine.
Future prospects and challenges
Despite the growing collaboration, some experts remain skeptical about the stability of a Russia-China alliance, citing historic tensions and China's desire to maintain strong ties with Western markets. However, the possibility of a military pact between the two authoritarian leaders is an eventuality that no one can afford to ignore or even underestimate.
The rise of this axis, together to the enlargement of the BRICS countries, is a possible critical turning point in world geopolitics. This potential alliance could rewrite the rules of the game in global security, and change the balance of power across the planet.
