When we think of electric cars, we often imagine luxurious and expensive vehicles that are beyond the reach of many. But we are at the dawn of a revolution: electric car prices are about to become more affordable thanks to revolutionary innovations in batteries and mass production strategies.
Electric car prices falling: Three key factors behind this trend
1. Falling battery prices: a catalyst for affordability
The cost of batteries has always had a substantial impact on electric car prices. However, recent innovations in battery technology are leading to significant cost reductions. The transition to new technologies such as sodium ion and solid state batteries it offers not only a reduction in costs, but also improvements in terms of sustainability and performance. These innovations are playing a vital role in making electric car prices more accessible to a wider audience. Reasons to support it? Different.
- Decrease in the cost of lithium ion batteries: Since 1991, the price of lithium-ion battery cells has decreased by approximately 97%. Such a drastic drop translates into a reduction in electric car prices. Why? You know that. Because batteries represent a substantial part of the total cost of the vehicle. [source]
- Production cost: In 1991, a battery with a capacity of one kilowatt hour (kWh) cost $7500, but in 2018, the same type of battery cost only $181, or 41 times less. This continued price reduction holds promise for the future affordability of electric cars. [source]
- Learning curve: The learning curve concept shows that, on average, the price of something drops for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity. For lithium-ion cells, the learning rate was 20,1%, meaning that prices fell by an average of 18,9% each time installed capacity doubled. [source]
- Future predictions: Goldman Sachs Research predicts battery prices will fall to $99 per kWh of storage capacity by 2025, a 40% decline from 2022. [source]
- DOE estimate: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that the cost of a lithium-ion battery pack for electric vehicles decreased by 89% between 2008 and 2022.
2. The expansion of charging infrastructure: a push towards convenience
The network of charging stations is a key element that influences electric car prices. As charging infrastructure becomes more widespread and technically advanced, manufacturers can design very different (and more economical) electric vehicles. This progress reduces the need for high-capacity batteries, further lowering production costs and, consequently, final prices for consumers. Standardizing charging systems and expanding networks of charging stations in urban and suburban areas are crucial steps towards broader adoption of electric cars.
- Global diffusion of charging stations: As of the end of 2022, there were 2,7 million public charging points worldwide, with more than 900.000 installations in 2022 alone, representing a 55% increase compared to 2021. This increase is comparable to the growth rate pre-pandemic by 50% between 2015 and 2019.
- Rapid Chargers Accessible to the Public: Public fast chargers, especially those along highways, allow for longer trips and can mitigate range anxiety, a barrier to EV adoption. The number of fast charging points increased by 330.000 globally in 2022, with China contributing nearly 90% of this growth. In China there are a total of 760.000. [source]
- Development of Charging Infrastructures in Europe and the USA: In Europe, the total number of fast charging points exceeded 70.000 at the end of 2022, an increase of 55% compared to 2021. Germany, France and Norway lead the way in the number of fast charging points. In the United States, 6.300 were installed in 2022, of which about three-quarters were Tesla Superchargers. The total reached 28.000 by the end of 2022, with expectations of an acceleration in implementation in the coming years. [source]
Matthias Preindl, a professor of electrical engineering at Columbia University, says expanding the charging network will allow manufacturers to de-emphasize long-range batteries, making vehicles lighter and less expensive to produce.
3. Economies of scale: a multiplier effect on electric car prices
Economies of scale are having a major impact on electric car prices. As the production of electric vehicles increases, per-unit production costs decrease. Companies like Tesla are taking innovative approaches in manufacturing, like the gigacasting, which allows reduce production costs even by half. This larger production scale not only reduces the price of each electric car, but also stimulates innovation and efficiency in the production process. As auto companies expand their electric vehicle assembly lines (and they are doing it, regardless of what some misleading press says), we can expect a further reduction in prices, making electric cars an increasingly convenient option.
Il gigacasting, introduced by Tesla, is a revolutionary method in the production of electric cars. This technique involves using large molds to forge significant portions of the car's bodywork into one piece, reducing costs and improving structural strength. Gigacasting leads to lighter and more robust vehicles, significantly contributing to the reduction in prices of electric cars. Of course, there is something to review about spare parts and the work of body shops...
In summary, a greener and more accessible future is on the horizon
All of these developments promise a future in which electric car prices will be within the reach of an ever-increasing number of consumers. This trend not only accelerates the shift to more sustainable transportation, but also makes electric technology a viable choice for a broad segment of the public. As these factors continue to evolve, electric car prices are set to become even more attractive, spurring wider adoption and contributing to a greener and more accessible transportation future.