In a world already shaken by too many conflicts and tensions, the idea that China could open a third front on Taiwan is more than just a bogeyman. But what would happen if this hypothesis became reality? The MAD doctrine, “or Mutually Assured Destruction,” has always been considered an effective deterrent. But is it really like this, or would this time be the perfect prelude to a world war?
Are you familiar with the MAD doctrine?
We live in a time where the world seems to be on the brink of chaos. The "surprise" attack on Israel by Hamas has also brought the Middle East to the brink of the abyss. Europe is tense due to the war in Ukraine, and is preparing (at the hands of French President Macron) to propose a European intervention in Gaza too. And the United States is increasingly cautious in its approach to foreign policy. In this context, China's entry could be the fuse that triggers a new, devastating world war.
The doctrine of Mutual Insured Destruction (also called MAD, an acronym derived from its name in English) it is a concept that comes from game theory. In summary, if two or more nuclear powers go to war, the probability that they will destroy each other is so high as to discourage direct conflict. But does this theory take into account new global dynamics? What if there was still a power that decides to risk everything, or feels forced to do so?
World War, the third front: Taiwan. Or India?
China has a front, or rather two fronts (one unsuspected, given its current membership of the BRICS) on which it could act: India and Taiwan. While India is an emerging US ally, Taiwan is a hot spot that may require direct US intervention. In both cases, the consequences would be global. As in the 40s, we have on one side the USA-EUROPE-NATO-AUKUS-QUAD allies and on the other the CHINA-RUSSIA-IRAN-PARTS OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA axis. A situation that makes the geopolitical picture even more complex.
In an already unstable world, China's entry could be the catalyst for global conflict. The MAD doctrine, once considered a solid deterrent, may no longer be sufficient to prevent a catastrophe. It is time to reconsider our strategies and prepare for scenarios that were once unthinkable: a third world war cannot be entirely ruled out as the world faces the prospect of almost all “hot spots” exploding at the same time.
