Seventy planes hit every day. This isn't a war bulletin, it's a standard commercial aviation statistic: lightning finds the plane, attaches itself to one end, and stays attached for about a second while the aircraft continues to hurtle through the air. In that second, the electrical discharge "sweeps" the metal surface, searching for an exit, changing intensity, and reattaching itself wherever it finds a preferential path.
Passengers don't feel a thing, because the fuselage acts like a Faraday cage. But the plane certainly feels it: in the wrong areas, the current can cause damage. Fortunately, decades of flying have taught us where to apply armor. The problem is that the planes of the future no longer resemble those of today.
When form changes, historical data is not enough
The aviation industry is exploring new geometries: wings integrated into the body (blended-wing bodies), truss-braced wings, and configurations designed to reduce weight and fuel consumption. No one has ever flown enough hours on these designs to know where lightning prefers to strike. And, of course, no one wants to find out once the flight has already begun.
Carmen Guerra-Garcia, associate professor at MIT, explains it clearly:
"We're starting to design aircraft that are very different from what we're used to. We can't exactly apply what we know from historical data to these new configurations because they're too different."
Guerra-Garcia's team developed a physics-based approach, Published on IEEE Access, which predicts how lightning will distribute itself across an aircraft of any shape. The system generates actual maps that highlight the vulnerable sections of an aircraft before the prototype is even assembled.
How the MIT Model Works
The system starts with the plane's geometry. The researchers simulate the fluid dynamics: how the air flows around the fuselage at a given speed, altitude, and pitch angle. They then integrate their previous model, which predicts the lightning's initial strike points. From there, the actual simulation begins.
For each attack point, the team simulates tens of thousands of potential electric arcs, at different angles. Endless series of lightning strikes and airplanes, airplanes and lightning. The model calculates how each strike would follow the airflow over the plane's surface, and the result is a statistical representation: where the lightning tends to flow, where it tends to linger, where it can cause damage. This statistic is then converted into a “custom” zone map for each aircraft, with graduated vulnerability levels.
“We have a physics-based tool that provides metrics like attack probability and dwell time, that is, how long an arc stops at a specific point,” says Guerra-Garcia.
“We convert these metrics into zoning maps: if you are in the red region, the lightning arc will persist for a long time, so that area needs to be heavily protected.”
Airplanes and lightning, the weight of protection
Nathanael Jenkins, a doctoral student and first author of the study, hits the nail on the head:
"Protecting aircraft from lightning is heavy. Incorporating copper mesh or metal foil throughout the structure comes at a cost in terms of weight. If we had the highest level of protection on every inch of the surface, the aircraft would weigh too much. Zoning is used to optimize the weight of the system, keeping it as safe as possible."
Current commercial aircraft are divided into three main areas, classified by the aviation industry. Each zone has a clear description of the level of current it must tolerate to be certified for flight. The most exposed parts fall into Zone 1 and require more robust protection: metal sheets embedded in the "skin" of the aircraft, which conduct the current.
To date, these zones have been determined after years of post-lightning flight inspections and progressive adjustments. The MIT method reverses the process: uses physics to map vulnerabilities before the plane exists.
The team validated the approach on a traditional tube-wing structure, demonstrating that the maps generated by the physical model match what industry has determined over decades of refinement. They are now applying the same method to new geometries: hybrid wings and truss structures.
Beyond planes and lightning: wind turbines in the crosshairs
Guerra-Garcia is already looking beyond aviation. “About the 60% of blade losses It’s due to lightning, and it will get worse as we move offshore, because offshore wind turbines will be even larger and more susceptible to upward lightning.”
Wind turbines, especially offshore ones, are becoming ever-taller giants. And height, in this case, is a problem: it attracts lightning like a magnet attracts iron. Recent experiments in Japan They've tested drones with flying Faraday cages to intercept lightning strikes before they strike critical infrastructure. MIT, as mentioned, is taking a different approach: predict, map, protect.
Confidence in the future
“Lightning is incredible and terrifying at the same time,” Jenkins says. “I have complete confidence in flying airplanes today, and I want to have that same confidence 20 years from now. So we need a new way to map airplanes.”
Louisa Michael di Boeing Technology Innovation, co-author of the study, confirms: "With physics-based methods like those developed with Professor Guerra-Garcia's group, we have the opportunity to shape industry standards and leverage physics to develop guidelines for aircraft certification through simulation. We are currently collaborating with industry committees to propose the inclusion of these methods in the Aerospace Recommended Practices."
The model doesn't eliminate lightning. It doesn't prevent it. It doesn't make it less dangerous. But it does something more practical: it tells you exactly where to put the copper, how much to put, and how much it will cost in terms of weight. Because a lighter plane uses less fuel, flies farther, and pollutes less. And if physics can tell you where protection is needed and where it isn't, the industry saves weight without risking lives.
Future planes will continue to be hit, just like current ones: but even those with "strange" wings and never-before-seen shapes will know where to expect the hit. And how to parry it.
