Researchers at Chalmers University in Sweden have published a study on the food tax which sounds like a tax heresy: 700 lives could be saved each year by shifting taxes to food., without anyone paying a single cent more. Steaks become more expensive, tomatoes cheaper. The shopping cart remains neutral, but diets change. And with it, mortality.
Published on Ecological EconomicsThe study shows that a food tax shift (removing VAT on healthy foods and adding taxes on red meat and soft drinks) can prevent more deaths than seat belts. In a country where poor diets kill as much as smoking, researchers have found a way to change habits without touching the wallet.
The question for Italy, where childhood obesity it is in second place in Europe, it's simple: why don't we do it too?
How the Food Tax Works: A Zero-Cost Experiment
The team led by Jörgen Larsson of Chalmers University of Technology, together with researchers from the Karolinska Institutet and Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, has developed a sophisticated model to calculate the effects of a food tax reform. The idea is simple: eliminate MOMS (the Swedish equivalent of VAT) from fruit, vegetables, legumes, and whole grains, and introduce taxes on red meat, cured meats, and sugary drinks. The result? Average supermarket spending remains the same, but choices change.
The numbers from the study are surprisingRemoving Swedish VAT would reduce the price of vegetables and whole grains by 11 percent, leading to a 4% increase in consumption of fruit and vegetables, and a 10% increase in consumption of wholemeal bread. On the other hand, taxes on sugary drinks would increase their price by 17%, reducing consumption by a quarter. But the most significant data concerns meat: A 25% increase in the price of beef and lamb (around 3 euros per kilo) would lead to a 19% reduction in consumption.
Today's diets are making us sick and damaging the climate. If we want to collectively take action, taxes and subsidies are a good way to go. Our research also shows that this can be done without increasing the average supermarket shopping price, when selective taxes on some food groups are offset by removing VAT on others.
Jörgen Larsson, Chalmers University of Technology
Seven hundred fewer deaths: the food tax bill
Dietary changes induced by the food tax could prevent around 700 premature deaths per year among people under 70 in Sweden. For comparison: there are more than three times as many deaths from road accidents in the Scandinavian country (around 200 per year). "This high figure surprised us, yet it's a conservative estimate," says Larsson. "There's also a lot of suffering associated with unhealthy diets that isn't reflected in this figure, such as living with obesity or type 2 diabetes."
The food tax would also have climate effects. The reduction in the carbon footprint of Swedish food consumption would be approximately 700.000 tons of CO2 equivalent per year. It's as if 8% of the country's cars disappeared from the roads. In Sweden, the climate impact of food consumption is about double the direct emissions of all passenger car trafficThe study focused on four food groups with strong scientific evidence: fruits, vegetables, and legumes; whole grain products; beef, lamb, pork, and processed meats; and sugar-sweetened beverages.
And in Italy? The sobering numbers.
The Italian situation makes the Swedish experiment even more relevant. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, between 1990 and 2022 the prevalence of obesity doubled among adults and quadrupled among children and adolescents. Valter Longo Foundation It is estimated that 27% of Italian children and adolescents between the ages of 3 and 19 are overweight, approximately 2,4 million people. Italy, as I mentioned, ranks second in Europe for the prevalence of childhood obesity.
The healthcare cost is enormous. 12% of Italian adults are obese, with direct consequences for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. A study by the Italian National Institute of Health has documented an approximately 18-fold increase in obesity mortality over the last 30 years. The most common causes of death in obese people are diabetes, heart disease, and respiratory diseases.
The most worrying data concerns the decline of the Mediterranean diet. Daily consumption of fruit and vegetables has dropped from 94% of the population in 1994 to 78% in 2024, According to the ISTAT 2025 report.
The trend is more evident among the new generations, who, at the same age, adopt less healthy diets than their predecessors and consume much less fruit.
Food tax: why no one talks about it in Italy
Italy has discussed several times a “fat tax” or a “sugar tax"a tax on sugary drinks, but every attempt has foundered. Food lobbies have consistently resisted, arguing that taxing certain foods would distort the market. Federalimentare, the association of the Italian food industries, has always rejected the idea, arguing that consumers would divert their choices towards similar, cheaper and lower-quality products.
But the Swedish study shows that this objection does not hold up. The food tax isn't an additional tax: it's a zero-cost fiscal shift for the state and its citizens. As Larsson explains:
The fact that the reform also comes at no cost to the central government improves the chances of implementation. In the long term, a food tax would provide significant economic benefits to the government through improved public health, reduced sick leave, and lower healthcare costs.
Price makes the difference: the example of meat
The study confirms that food prices have a huge impact on consumption. A historical example: beef consumption in Sweden increased by 50% in the 90s, largely attributable to the halving of meat prices after Sweden joined the European Union. As we have told, some countries have already experimented with taxes on sugary drinks with modest but significant results.
Mexico has introduced a tax in 2014, reducing sales especially among low-income families. The United Kingdom followed in 2018Chile has implemented in 2016 some of the most stringent regulations in the world: restrictions on advertising ultra-processed foods, mandatory warning labels on products high in calories, sodium, saturated fat, and sugar. Note well, however: none of these countries have attempted a comprehensive food tax like the one proposed by the Swedish researchers.
Food tax: neutral for everyone, rich and poor
Food price increases typically hit low-income families hardest, who spend a larger share of their income on food. But with the proposed food tax, some foods would become more expensive and others cheaper. Researchers see this as a boon to gaining public acceptance for the change.World Health Organization has published guidelines recommending the use of fiscal levers to incentivize healthier diets, stressing that Increasing the prices of sugary drinks by at least 20% leads to a proportional reduction in consumption.
The question for Italy is political, not technical. The government has established a Fund for the Prevention and Treatment of Obesity for 2025-2027 with €1,2 million. A ridiculous figure when compared to the healthcare costs of obesity. The Honorable's bill Robert Pella The bill to recognize obesity as a chronic disease is stalled in Parliament. Meanwhile, a third of our children continue to gain weight, and the Mediterranean diet is becoming a tourist memory.
Sweden is proving that change can be achieved without requiring financial sacrifice. Simply shift taxes from broccoli to steaks. The price of your food cart will remain the same, your health will improve, and the climate will thank you.
Seriously: when will we start too?
