How long does it take to send American politics into a tailspin? Elon Musk It took just five minutes and a tweet. On Saturday, July 5, in the middle of Independence Day weekend, the founder of Tesla announced the birth of theAmerica Party.
What is it? I can tell you what it is NOT. It is not just any party. It is Musk's personal declaration of war on the "uniparty" system that he believes governs the United States. And the reaction to this declaration of war was immediate: furious Trump supporters, perplexed Democrats, political analysts in turmoil.
The richest man on the planet, meanwhile, is laughing. Like the Joker. Literally. He shares memes, responds with emojis, and enjoys every single reaction as if he were sitting front row at a show he directed himself. A show with an increasingly open ending.
The perfect timing for the America Party
The America Party’s announcement is no accident. The split between Musk and Trump over the “Big Beautiful Bill” has created a rift that seems irreparable. Trump has disavowed his own campaign with a budget bill that extends 2017 tax cuts, raises the debt ceiling, and funds border security, but cuts social programs.
But what does this new formation really represent? According to Musk, the goal is to give a voice to “the 80 percent of the population in the middle” who don’t feel recognized by Democrats and Republicans: the silent majority who feel ignored by the traditional two-party system.
A strategy that aims straight for the center, away from the extremism of the right and left. Early polls show surprising results: 14% of Americans say they are “very likely” to support the America Party, while 26% say they are “somewhat likely.” Numbers that, if confirmed, could really revolutionize the American political landscape.
The Numbers That Could Change Everything
Elon Musk has three key assets to build a fearsome third party: money, visibility and following. With an estimated net worth of over $250 billion, can afford to invest hundreds of millions in a national campaign. He has already demonstrated that he can move enormous numbers: spent about $2024 million to support Trump during the 289 election.
The most interesting numbers, however, concern the electoral potential. The experts of Quantus Insights they estimate that The America Party could reach between 5% and 10% of the national vote. Does this seem like a small thing? It is not at all. In American politics, where elections are often decided by a few percentage points, even just 5% can be decisive: 10% can be absolutely, without any doubt decisive.
Take the 2020 election: in key states like Georgia (0,2 percent difference), Arizona (0,3 percent), and Wisconsin (0,6 percent), just a few votes stolen from Republicans would have been enough to overturn the result. If the America Party could capture 7-8% of the moderate conservative electorate, Republicans would find themselves in serious trouble in swing states.
Possible Scenarios for the America Party
The first scenario sees the American Party as a “spoiler” for the center-right. According to Grok artificial intelligence, owned by Musk himself, the new party could “fragment the Republican vote, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada.” The result? An advantage for Democrats without them having to do anything.
The second scenario (all my own work, this time) is more ambitious: the America Party that really manages to become a third structural force. As Musk himself explained, it would be enough to win "two or three seats in the Senate and eight to ten districts in the House" to become the deciding factor on any controversial legislation. A surgical strategy that could work better than a very expensive and dispersive national campaign.
The America Party's Concrete Challenges
Starting a political party in the United States is not like launching an electric car. Each state has different rules for party recognition and access to ballots. Thousands of signatures are needed, time is short, and endless legal battles are involved. “Only the richest person in the world could seriously attempt to create a new American party,” admits the election expert Brett Kappel.
But Musk already has an advantage: the infrastructure of America PAC, his super-political committee that spent $200 million on Trump in 2024. That organizational machine could be quickly repurposed for the America Party.
The real obstacle, however, is not technical: it is cultural. Americans have been accustomed to bipolarism for over 150 years. For them, Dem and Rep are Mom and Dad. The last third party that really counted was that of Ross Perot in 1992, which reached 19% but did not win a single constituency, and disappeared soon after.
What will really change
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former strategist, sees black: “Musk is clearly an unstable person,” he attacks. A weak, very weak argument, which tragically underestimates the possible Musk effect on American politics. The billionaire does not need to win to change the rules of the game. Existing is enough for him.
The paradox of the America Party is that it may have already won before it has even nominated anyone. Its very existence forces Republicans and Democrats to deal with an electorate that is looking for alternatives. And Musk, being the master of communication that he is, knows very well that sometimes threatening is more effective than acting..
As I wrote to you some time ago, the parties of the future are born when traditional politics can no longer intercept the real needs of people. Musk's America Party could be just that: not a whim from a bored billionaire, but the first sign of a politics that is changing skin.
Between funny emojis and shared memes, Musk is playing a very serious game. And if words are followed by actions, we will see the results in the next elections.
