When you open your refrigerator, have you ever thought about how much the food you find is tied to an extremely fragile global supply chain? The catastrophe that could starve us is not as unlikely as we might think. A study published in PLOS One A team of New Zealand researchers examined this disturbing scenario, highlighting how urban agriculture (that of city allotments and community gardens) could feed only a fifth of the population in the event of a commercial collapse. A frankly depressing number. But the research didn't stop there, it also calculated how much peri-urban land (just outside the city) would be needed to ensure everyone's survival. And, let me say, the results show that saving ourselves is possible, but we need strategies that perhaps we are not even considering.
More than just urban gardens
Survival in the event of a disaster, whether it be a nuclear war a extreme pandemic or a solar storm, will depend on our ability to produce food locally. Researchers Matt Boyd e Nick Wilson ofUniversity of Otago They used Palmerston North as a case study, a medium-sized New Zealand city (about 90.000 inhabitants) considered representative of many urban realities in the world. In Italy, for example, this would be cities like Trieste, Padua, Bologna, Trento, Verona, and many others.
Analysis of Google Earth images has led to a worrying conclusion: cultivating every available space in the city (private gardens, rooftops, parks) would only feed about 20% of the inhabitants. To feed the entire population, at least 1.140 additional hectares of land would need to be cultivated in the immediate vicinity, plus another 110 hectares to produce the biofuels needed for agricultural machinery.
Life-saving crops
The study goes as far as identifying the most efficient crops in different conditions. In normal climate, the peas are successful in maximizing protein and calories while minimizing land use. But in the event of a “nuclear winter” (when dust and soot in the atmosphere would drastically reduce sunlight) sugar beets e spinach would become the best urban choices, while wheat e carrots should be grown in peri-urban areas.
In case of catastrophe? Cooperation, not bunkers
“I’m skeptical that ‘billionaire bunkers’ are particularly useful after a catastrophe if civilization actually needs a reboot,” Boyd says. I think he's right. “Probably cooperative measures are needed at the social level.” A statement that I fully agree with and that underlines how true resilience does not lie in the high-tech shelters of a privileged few, but in the ability of communities to organize and collaborate.
Next time you walk around your city, look at those green spaces, that concrete (perhaps to be replaced with grass and soil through the depaving), those uncultivated lands and even the flat roofs of buildings. In an uncertain future, they could become our lifeline.
