There are wars that are fought with weapons, others with words. The current one, and not from now, China and the United States are (currently) fighting over elements from the periodic table. Since April 4, the Chinese government has imposed drastic new controls on exports of critical rare earths, and intends to increase them: a potentially devastating blow in the trade war with the Trump administration.
Samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium e yttrium: ring a bell? These are names that sound alien to most of us, but they are actually present in every device we use on a daily basis, from smartphones to stealth bombers. This isn’t just another commercial skirmish: it’s a strategic move that directly strikes at the backbone of America’s national defense and the entire Western high-tech economy.
Beijing's invisible weapon in the tariff war
As a European observer, I am witnessing a particularly sophisticated chess game. China is not simply responding to Trump's trade war: it is exploiting its quasi-monopoly (as in the transformation of lithium, moreover) on resources that are literally irreplaceable at the moment. The dysprosium and terbium, for example, are essential for producing magnets resistant to high temperatures, essential for electric motors in guided missiles, aircraft, drones and naval propulsion systems.
Samarium-cobalt magnets, in fact, they power everything from the F-35's actuators to the targeting systems. gadolinium is a key component of military sonars. Alloys scandium-aluminium reduce weight while maintaining strength in aerospace structures. And the lutetium is increasingly used in advanced radiation detection systems.
They are not luxury materials, but worse: they are irreplaceable components. At the moment, building an advanced hypersonic vehicle, a submarine-launched cruise missile or a swarm of battle drones without these elements it's simply impossible. A fact that should make us reflect on the fragility of our global supply chains.
A worrying monopoly
As mentioned, China dominates the supply chain of materials I have described to you: controls approximately 70-85% of their global production and processing capacity. In many cases, such as dysprosium and terbium, China is not the dominant supplier: it's the only economically viable one.
The wars of the future may not start with missiles, but with minerals.
The implications of the new restrictions go far beyond defense. These same items are critical to industries that define modern civilization: consumer electronics, factory automation and robotics, healthcare, electric and hybrid vehicles, wind turbines, medical imaging, semiconductors, appliances, and more. Now Beijing is threatening to block them for those it sees as its adversaries.
This is a lesson not to be forgotten: dependence on a single supplier for strategic materials is a systemic weakness that requires urgent solutions aimed at autonomy, or diplomacy. The lesson on Russian gas (and also on American gas bought for its weight in gold) has not yet taught anything.
Trade War: Signs of US Collapse?
I think it's no coincidence that, just as China was imposing these restrictions on rare earths, the Trump administration backtracked on smartphone tariffs. A move that, seen from this side of the Atlantic, appears as a sign of weakness, or at least as an implicit recognition of China's position of strength. So no, Adnkronos, Trump HAS NOT “pardoned” the Chinese. Think about it.
The US is discovering, perhaps belatedly, that in this trade war (in the words of the 47th US president) “they do not hold all the cards”. Indeed, some of the most important cards are firmly in Beijing’s hands. The sudden softening of the US position on smartphones could be a direct consequence of the awareness that, without Chinese rare earths, the entire US technology industry would risk collapse.
Even Washington's new policy must confront the harsh reality of global economic dependencies, in this globalization first desired and then torn to pieces. Yet, this is not a process that began this morning.
A disturbing precedent
Recent history teaches us that this is not the first time that China has used this lever. And not even the second. In 2010, Beijing has imposed restrictions on rare earth exports amid a territorial dispute with Japan. In 2023, imposed restrictions on gallium, germanium and graphite (important in semiconductor manufacturing) in response to U.S. bans on chip exports. Last year, tightened restrictions on gallium and germanium and added antimony and superhard materials.
This latest move announced by Xi is the most expansive yet. It targets a broader range of elements, and the regulatory language is broad, covering metals, oxides, alloys, compounds, magnets, and even mixed-material targets used in thin-film production. A blow, forgive me if I repeat myself, terrifying.
The Western Response
Looking at this situation from a Western perspective, one must realize that both the US and Europe have lacked foresight. Yes, the Trump administration is already taking aggressive steps to make the US more self-sufficient in rare earths and critical minerals. But American progress in this area over the past 20 years has been painfully slow.
And Europe? I feel worse. The old continent is in a vulnerable position, with very few rare earth deposits and almost total dependence on imports. The need to diversify sources of supply, invest in recycling and develop technological alternatives is as urgent for us as it is for the Americans.
The lesson is clear: future wars may not start with missiles, but with minerals. And unless the West invests in securing access to the elements that fuel our technologies, we may soon find ourselves on the wrong side of a digital and defense divide.
