It's a morning like any other in any elementary school. Children run, play, study. Some (increasingly) pant after a few steps, struggle to move, become the target of cruel jokes. Behind those struggling bodies there is not only an aesthetic issue or a question of dietary discipline, but a social and health time bomb. Thechildhood obesity is literally devouring the future of our children, and numbers just published in the magazine The Lancet they confirm it in a dramatic way.
Let’s not beat around the bush: by 2050, one-third of the world’s children and adolescents will be overweight or obese. A forecast that should keep us awake at night more than any other emergency.
Breathtaking numbers (just like childhood obesity)
I would love to tell you that this is the usual scientific alarmism, but the data is merciless and, frankly, terrifying. The study, led by Murdoch Children's Research Institute, leaves no room for optimistic interpretations: 385 million overweight children and 360 million obese in the next 25 years. A figure that makes my head spin like those about war.
One in six children in the world will be obese within a few years. One in six! And to think that in 1990, childhood obesity affected three times fewer children. In just thirty years we have seen a 244% increase, while we continue to tell ourselves the joke that we are more aware, more health conscious, more informed. Evidently, something doesn't add up.
The report highlights ruthless things. For example, it highlights how in Australia, one of the most developed countries, girls are already more likely to be obese than to be simply overweight. This is a fact that struck me particularly, because it shows that we are not talking about a problem limited to developing countries or the poorest segments of the population. Childhood obesity has become transversal, “democratic” in its cruelty.
Consequences that we will carry with us for generations
It's not just a matter of aesthetics or social acceptance. Childhood obesity brings with it a load of problems that will last for decades: diabetes, heart problems, cancer, breathing difficulties, fertility problems, challenges for mental health. It is a mortgage on the future, a burden that risks crushing already struggling health systems and devouring colossal economic resources.
La Dr. Jessica Kerr, one of the authors of the study, used words that struck me for their harshness:
“Not only will this gigantic burden cost the health care system and the economy billions, but the complications associated with a high BMI will negatively impact our children and adolescents now and in the future, with the potential to impact our grandchildren’s obesity risk as well.”
This is the point that makes me shudder: we are talking about an epidemic whose effects will not end with our generation, but will be transmitted to future ones. Like a genetic and epigenetic curse that we can't break.
The World Map of Childhood Obesity: No One is Safe
The study analyzed data from 204 countries. United Arab Emirates, Cook Islands, Nauru e Tonga will lead the ranking in terms of prevalence, while China, Egypt, India e United States will have the largest absolute number of obese children and adolescents by 2050.
North Africa, Middle East, Latin America e Caraibi will see the fastest transitions to obesity. Regions that have historically had to focus on preventing malnutrition they now find themselves having to face the opposite emergency, often with limited resources and inadequate monitoring systems.
It's not just a matter of ultra-processed foods, fast food e sugary drinks. It is a complex problem that intertwines urbanization, technology, advertising, poverty, agricultural and trade policies. The causes are systemic, but the consequences fall on individual children.
The Five-Year Window: Can We Still Save a Generation?
The only glimmer of hope in this apocalyptic scenario comes from Dr. Kerr when he states that “this trajectory can be avoided if action comes before 2030”. We have only five years to reverse the trend, to prevent millions of children from getting lost in the tunnel of childhood obesity.
La Professor Susan Sawyer of the Murdoch Institute is categorical: “We can no longer continue to blame only people for their choices.” And she is right. We need decisive government intervention: taxation of sugary drinks, banning junk food advertising aimed at children, funding healthy meals in primary and secondary schools, rethinking urban planning to encourage active lifestyles.
Adolescents of reproductive age are a priority population for intervention. Preventing intergenerational transmission of obesity is essential if we are to break this vicious cycle.
The weight of the future
I often ask myself whether today's children will be the first generation to live less than their parents. Probably, if these numbers materialize. Childhood obesity is not just about body weight; it is about the burden on the future.
Families can do their part, of course, but it's like swimming against the current when everything in the surrounding environment is pushing in the opposite direction. We need a radical change, a revolution in our relationship with food and movement, otherwise we will find ourselves looking at a generation that is literally lost in the folds of her skin.
