Whoever controls the logistics controls the war. This principle, known to any military strategist, is about to be completely overturned (or completely reaffirmed) by the introduction of SpaceX cargo rockets into the US military's fleet.
The U.S. Air Force announced Monday that it plans to build two landing pads on Johnston Island, a tiny atoll in the Pacific located about 1.300 kilometers off the coast of Hawaii. What are they for? Quick. The project is part of the program Rocket Cargo Vanguard, an initiative that promises to deliver war material to any point on the globe in “90 minutes or less,” using rockets flying into space instead of traditional transport planes.
It is a vision that, as mentioned, radically transforms the very concept of military “power projection,” potentially rendering decades of logistics doctrine obsolete. But is it really feasible? And above all, is it worth it? The Pentagon seems to think so, despite the astronomical costs and obvious technical challenges.
An island for cargo rockets in the Pacific
Before you see cargo rockets landing loaded with military supplies, there are several hurdles to overcome. Johnston Island isn't just a piece of land in the middle of the ocean: it's part of the Johnston Atoll National Wildlife Refuge and is located within the Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. It's a Marine Sanctuary, dammit.
For this, the Pentagon will have to study the effects that the landing of huge cargo rockets could have on the “essential habitat of fish, migratory birds and other protected species”. The Air Force (really?) is optimistic and believes that all these studies will demonstrate that the construction of two landing platforms will have a “not significant impact” on the island.
The reports will become public in early April, followed by a 30-day period for public comment on the proposal. I wonder if this optimistic assessment reflects reality or rather the urgency of the project for the Pentagon. It would not be the first time that military “reasons” prevail over environmental ones. And sadly, judging by the collective madness that is moving on a global scale, it won't be the last.
Space Deliveries: A Dream That Has Lasted for Years
The concept of sending military cargo into space is not new: the US military has been working on it for at least five years. In 2020, General (now retired) Stephen R. Lyons hinted at a future of rocket expeditions during a National Defense Transportation meeting.
“Think about moving the equivalent of a C-17's cargo anywhere on the globe in less than an hour,” he said. Lyons. “Think about that speed associated with the movement and transportation of goods and people. There is a lot of potential here and I am really excited about the team that is working with SpaceX on an opportunity, perhaps as early as 2021, to conduct a proof of principle.”
One of the most iconic images of the so-called Global War on Terrorism It's a Burger King supply truck that landed from a C-17 in Afghanistan in 2004. Remember that? History needs to be read through these seemingly insignificant details.
Now imagine the same thing happening, in 90 minutes or less, via rockets from Elon Musk's company. It's an image that says a lot about America's logistical priorities, for better or worse.
The Cargo Rocket Cost Problem
The main obstacle to the rocket-shipment plan is cost. Refueling and flying a C-17 loaded with armored Humvees to the Middle East is already expensive, but it is still cheaper than launching a rocket into space. One of the goals of SpaceX is to reduce the cost of launches by reusing rocket parts, but the cost of a single launch is still estimated in the tens of millions of dollars.
Despite these prohibitive costs, the dream of shooting weapons, food and equipment into space persists. Some “old habits” die hard. John Raymond, a retired Space Force general, said in a 2021 press release about the program: “Once realized, Rocket Cargo will fundamentally alter the landscape of rapid logistics, connecting materiel to joint warfighters in a fraction of the time it takes today. In the event of conflict or humanitarian crisis, Space Force will be able to provide our national leadership with an independent option to achieve strategic objectives from space.”
The implications of this vision are enormous. If the program is successful, it could eliminate one of the U.S. military's major operational constraints: the time needed to move heavy equipment. On the other hand, the enormous cost per launch could limit its use to extremely critical situations, making cargo rockets more of an emergency option than a complete logistics revolution.
In any case, if you absolutely must, fast forward to when, perhaps decades from now, these things will have a civilian use and will be ferrying people anywhere in the world in 90 minutes.
