Something doesn't add up in the numbers of Italian solar growth. As in a strange game of mirrors, while the total installed power grows by 30%, the number of new plants drops by 25%. A paradox that hides an uncomfortable truth: Solar energy is increasingly becoming a business for big players, leaving families and small consumers behind.
And that’s not a good sign, because this trend could turn energy democratization into a privilege for a few.
Solar Growth, a Double-Speed Boom
As Luca Pagni brilliantly reports on Go electric (site that I always recommend for the accuracy of its analyses on the energy sector), 2024 was the year of the plants utility-scale. A technical term that hides a very simple reality: large solar projects are finally seeing the light of day.
The total installed power has reached 37 gigawatts, according to data from Terna reworked by Solar Italy. An impressive number that, however, only tells half the story.
“The Italian photovoltaic sector is experiencing a phase of solid growth, with an increasingly strong role played by large-scale plants”, explains Paul Viscontini, President of Solar Italy.
The collapse of domestic photovoltaics
The collapse of the residential sector makes me think: -21% of installed power compared to 2023. We are talking about 1.789 MW against 2.258 MW of the previous year. The number of plants has fallen from 359.772 to 274.537.
The end of the Super bonus It left a void that no one has been able to fill. It's as if we had built a highway but forgotten the access roads to reach it.
And the future does not look good, at least without new support measures for families.
Businesses, on the other hand, are keeping pace
In the commercial and industrial segment (from 20 kW to 1 MW), the situation looks rosier. An increase of 8% It may seem modest, but it reveals a growing awareness of the business world.
Companies have realized that solar energy is not only a green choice, but also a strategy to protect themselves from the roller coaster of energy prices.
Energy cost stability is becoming too important a competitive advantage to ignore.
The giants of the sun
The real boom is found in the sector utility-scale, with plants greater than 1 MW. An explosion of 163%: 3.045 MW against 1.157 MW in 2023. Numbers that make your head spin.
The geography of this growth is interesting. The Lombardia dominates with almost 5.000 MW total, followed by Veneto (3.768 MW) and Puglia (3.632 MW). But each region has its own specialty.
The last quarter of 2024 saw a particular acceleration, with 1,9 GW of new capacity connected.
Solar Growth, the Risk of an Elite Photovoltaic
Viscontini e Solar Italy raise the alarm: "targeted measures are needed to support families in the energy transition". It is not just a question of numbers, but of democratization of thePhotovoltaics.
There are three proposals on the table: enhancing self-consumption, improving network management and streamlining bureaucracy. It seems easy on paper, but the reality is more complex.
The Suitable Areas decree could further complicate the picture, adding new obstacles to the spread of photovoltaics.
A risky transition
I wonder if we are really going in the right direction. An energy transition that excludes families is destined to fail, or worse, to create new inequalities.
The success of large plants is certainly positive, but it cannot be the only way. Solar energy should be a right, not a privilege.
As Pagni effectively concludes in his article, the danger is that photovoltaics will become increasingly “elitist”. And in a respectable energy transition, we cannot afford to leave anyone behind.
