They call them “destiny elections,” and it’s not just a catchy metaphor. Elections in Germany will mark a watershed in the country's recent history, with potentially profound repercussions on the future of theXNUMX-XNUMX business days.
A vote that comes at the height of a perfect storm, with Germany exhausted by two years of recession, shaken by a resurgence of terrorist attacks, and faced with a possible new wave of migrants arriving from the Balkans and the Mediterranean.
German Elections: Merz Already Won, But Governing Will Be Another Story
Frederick Merz, the CDU candidate, has the victory in his grasp. I am not an adventurer and I am interested in observing the bigger picture: I will not let myself be influenced from polls which give him a clear advantage over the outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz, with a margin that has been consolidating in the last weeks of the election campaign. He will win because he has a long political experience, he has more charisma and determination than his predecessor and above all his "broad field" has no better alternatives than him to regain the trust of voters after years of government led by the Social Democrats.
The real test for Merz, however, will not be winning the elections, but rather managing to govern a country grappling with multiple emergencies. And here the story changes. He will be burdened by the burden of a difficult legacy and the responsibility of leading Germany out of the deepest crisis in decades. A complex challenge, which will require vision, courage and leadership skills.
Merz will have to face an economy in recession, with the GDP which in the last quarter marked a worrying -0,3%. A figure that reflects the difficulties of the German model, put to the test by the end of low-cost energy imports from Russia and by the growing competitiveness of China on international markets. The future chancellor will have to find a way to relaunch the country's competitiveness, without giving up its industrial and export vocation.
The Terrorist Threat and the Migrant Emergency
However, it is not only the economy that worries Germans. The country has been hit in recent years by a series of terrorist attacks, often carried out by migrants or asylum seekers. The latest, just ten days ago in Munich, has reignited the debate on security and immigration, pushing a part of the electorate towards theAfD, a party that has made the fight against Islam and the closing of borders its battle horses.
Merz, while firmly condemning all forms of extremism, will have to find an answer to citizens' concerns about security and immigration. He cannot ignore these issues, but he will have to address them with balance, without giving in to the temptation of easy slogans or simplistic solutions. A task made even more difficult by the possible new wave of migrants arriving from the Balkans and the Mediterranean, driven by the economic crisis and political instability in many countries of origin.
Defense and Foreign Policy: Merz's Challenges
But the challenges for the future chancellor do not stop there. After the elections in Germany, Merz will have to deal with an increasingly unstable and unpredictable geopolitical framework in which his country will be called upon to define its role. He will have to evaluate whether and how to strengthen the European defense, balancing the need for investment in the modernization of the army with the demands of a part of public opinion opposed to excessive military interventionism.
On the foreign policy front, Merz will then have to manage relations with the United States, complicated by the protectionist policies of the Trump administration and the threat of tariffs. He will have to find a balance between defending German interests and safeguarding a multilateral approach, respecting the founding values of the European Union. An exercise in diplomacy that will require great negotiating skills and strategic vision, hopefully better than his predecessor.
German Elections, the AfD Unknown and the Future of Europe
A few words about the AfD, the party that could capitalize on fear and discontent to achieve a historic result. If Alice Weidel's party should significantly exceed the 15% threshold, and everything suggests that governing could prove to be an even more arduous challenge for Merz.
With such a strong and aggressive opposition, the new chancellor could find himself having to deal with nationalist and sovereignist pressures, and forced into difficult mediations. A scenario that would inevitably have repercussions on the future of European integration: a possible drift of Germany could in fact undermine the foundations of the already desperate balance of the Union.
This is why these elections in Germany are being followed with great attention across the continent. The outcome of Sunday's vote will have consequences that will go far beyond Germany's borders, redrawing the structures of power and geopolitical balances in Europe. Much will depend on the new government's ability to address the many challenges on the table, from the economic crisis to the management of migratory flows, through the relaunch of the European project (perhaps without going through a process of rearmament).
A historic responsibility for the future chancellor
At such a delicate moment, Germany finds itself at a crossroads. It will have to choose whether to assume the role of leader and stabilizing power that many in Europe expect of it, or whether to withdraw into itself, perhaps giving in to the temptation of nationalist and populist solutions. A choice that will inevitably weigh on the continent's destiny.
Friedrich Merz will have to prove himself equal to the situation from the first day of his mandate. He will have to be the chancellor of economic recovery, security, social cohesion. But also and above all the chancellor of European dialogue and cooperation, capable of balancing national interests with the need for common action in the face of major global challenges.
If he can interpret the spirit of the times, if he can indicate a perspective of development and progress, then he can truly open a new phase in German and European history. A phase in which Germany returns to being a point of reference, not to impose its hegemony, but to build a future of peace, well-being and solidarity for all the peoples of the continent. The stakes could not be higher.
